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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 21 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

@MBoquard Thanks Michel. My take on $ANGI Q3: The quarter was better than the stock implies. • Revenue $242M, -9% YoY (improved from -11% in Q2), in line with consensus • Adj. EBITDA $42.2M vs ~$29M expected, 17.4% margin • Proprietary service requests flat at 3.8M, revenue per lead +10%, Large Pro revenue +20%+ • EPS missed ($0.03 vs $0.11), but that's non-cash accelerated depreciation from retiring the legacy platform The balance sheet isn't the problem I made it out to be: • $202.5M cash vs $398.7M of 3.875% notes due Aug 2028, not within a year • $175M revolver undrawn to 2030 • Bought back ~$100M of bonds below par YTD ($8.4M gain) • ~$196M net debt, roughly 1.5x EBITDA • At $5.99: ~$246M mkt cap, ~$440M EV, ~2.6x Q3 run-rate EBITDA, ~3.4x trailing The real problem is supply, not demand: • Avg monthly active pros 101K, -14% • Monthly pro churn 6.7% vs 5.9% a year ago • Leads -18%, network service requests -33% (partly deliberate cuts to low-quality traffic) • 9M FCF -$7M vs +$34M last year. Operating cash flow $38M vs $93M of adj. EBITDA, with $45M of capex during the platform migration • The 300-role cut ($50-60M run-rate savings) comes with $18-30M of restructuring charges through 1H27 What the AlphaSense expert calls say: • Former Angi VP (Oct 12): recent declines are "primarily due to a shrinking base of service providers, not a loss of homeowner demand or LLM-driven disruption." • Former Angi GM (Sep 22): believes the business "has already hit its lowest point" and sees "limited downside risk from current levels." Blames a poorly executed rebrand for the lost organic traffic. • Former Angi Director of Product (Sep 21): bearish. Sees conversational AI as "an existential threat" that could bypass marketplaces entirely. • Nextdoor marketing lead (Oct 14): Google AI Overviews pose "a significant threat to Angi's organic traffic," and Thumbtack is outspending Angi on brand. • Former Angi VP of Finance (Oct 12): skeptical the international margins can be replicated in the US; integration and cost work is "far from complete." How I see it: If pros stabilize, capex drops now that the migration is done, and they keep retiring notes below par, I get to roughly $60-80M of FCF in 2027 on a ~$246M market cap. That's my estimate, not guidance. If churn keeps rising and AI starts showing up in proprietary service requests, the 17% margin is just cost cuts on a shrinking business. What I'm watching: tomorrow's call (new CEO Mike Steib, ~45 days in) and the Nov 17 investor day for 2027 targets, pro count, capex and what they do with the cash. Not investment advice.

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

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