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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

Investors are selling $BESI, in our view, because customers increasingly prefer or consider shorter HBM stacks, since HBM is expensive. Our industry information points to customers requesting stacks of four or six memory dies. Fewer layers mean fewer connections and, where hybrid bonding is used, fewer bonding steps per stack, and shorter stacks fit package-height limits more easily with conventional solder. That could delay equipment adoption and weaken the nearer-term HBM opportunity for $BESI, which supplies hybrid-bonding equipment. Logic folding is the tailwind. It places parts of a circuit above one another on vertically connected layers joined through hybrid bonding, so signals travel shorter distances and the chip runs faster on less energy. Those benefits hold even when an inference system needs less HBM, and the layers still need aligning and connecting with exceptional precision. In our view, that can create more hybrid-bonding demand than this delay takes away. Wider folding also pushes inspection and measurement into more logic-chip applications. We expect that to lift spending faster than chip volumes for $ONTO and $CAMT, and for $NVMI, whose materials and chemistry checks address problems that get harder as circuits move into vertically connected layers. Longer term, folding could make chips on established processes more capable for $UMC. That is our prospective thesis, not an announced UMC program. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

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