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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 21 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Ambarella $AMBA trades below my bear case, and below where it was before the Financial Times reported takeover talks. In my September 9 update on the edge AI chipmaker, my bear case was $72/share, 16.8% above its $61.67 close on November 2, and my base case $99, 60.5% above. Even the $57 case, where the multiple keeps compressing, is just 7.6% below. $AMBA is down 10.4% since that update, less than the 13.4% drop in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). Neither $AMBA nor NXP Semiconductors $NXPI, the Dutch auto chipmaker, has confirmed the takeover talks the Financial Times reported on July 31. But on October 30, traders citing a Betaville alert said $AMBA’s board had picked $NXPI for exclusive talks after weighing multiple offers. At $61.67, $AMBA trades below its $74.09 close before the FT report, so the stock isn’t pricing in much of a deal, and a bid would be upside none of my cases counts. The company carries no debt and has $272.3M of cash and securities as of July 31, against ~$18M/quarter of FCF burn in the first half of FY2027. That’s more than three years of runway, so it’s unlikely to need to sell stock. The dilution comes from stock comp instead, which ran at 21.9% of revenue over the last 12 months (too high for my liking) and lifted the share count 3.4% in a year. Memory shortages at its camera customers are the risk to Q4, and the Q3 report, which $AMBA hasn’t scheduled yet, will show whether customers are cutting orders.

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

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