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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Haven't posted $AIRS thoughts since the Q2 miss. But after speaking to management and refreshing on the thesis here's an update: 1. The opportunity for post GLP1 procedures remains as large as ever. When a new "thing" starts trending, a business such as theirs with surgeons, devices, and rigid medical process can't just turn on a dime to capture the growing opportunity in a few months. It takes a little time and the management team is measured, disciplined, and thoughtful about the best way to pivot. Why? Because this is a health care setting where you don't just throw stuff at the wall. But... 2. ...Measurable evidence of the new are opportunities (skin removal, tightening etc) gaining momentum is emerging: Skin excisions grew 100% from Q4 and have increased within the mix going from Q4 4.3%, Q1 4.9% to Q2 5.9%. That's real evidence of progress on addressing a massive post GlP1 demand wave. 3. The announced partnership with Alloclae might be a GAME CHANGER as the fat transfer procedure is hitting the zeitgeist as we speak. Alix Earle has 14mn social media followers and the rumor mill consensus is that she just had the procedure done. Sure looks like it to me. 4. I was expecting them to announce a debt refi that didn't come. Disappointing, yes. But, I still believe it is coming and management said so too: "We recently signed an amendment exceeding the maturity of the facility to November 2027. At the same time, we continue to make progress refinancing. The continued stability in our business has allowed us to receive multiple-term sheets that we believe are aligned with our long-term interest and the maturity extension gives us additional time to achieve the right transaction." 5. Mgmt keeps talking about restarting store growth given low saturation and lack of presence in many notable markets such as Long Island, Tampa, etc. You don't wave new store growth in front of the market unless you think you are going to refi the debt and have some stuff cooking to reignite SSS. Maybe more promotional management teams would, but having gotten to know this team well, I am confident that they are not inclined to promote things that they don't have high confidence in. When Yogi became CEO he literally told me no plans to go on the road and meet with investors because they need stability first. Now its a total 180 on that point. 6. There's so much operating leverage here. If the new GLP1 related opportunities continue to gain momentum, and if they add 3 stores to the 31 store base, then we grow ebitda 41% next year. Today we are trading at just 4.9x past peak adj ebitda. In five years, why can't they expand to 40 stores? Based on the unit economics per store, they would then be in position to exceed prior peak earnings. This was a mismanaged business that got hurt by the early rapid onset of GLP1, but we now know that the other side of that demand wave comes with a whole new set of demand for aesthetic work. The opportunity is absolutely massive. And if this current team doesn't get it done, then given the long term filers in the name (PE, activists), I suspect that new owners would be happy to enter the picture. Meanwhile, the short interest remains high and the top five holders aren't going anywhere. *This is not advice, just our opinion. We are long AIRS but that can change at anytime.

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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
Value Investors Club

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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