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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$SIVE and $AAOI, yes for a 2027 timeframe. That's the nuance. Sivers you're coming on with 100M CW DFB laser capacity + 2 external foundries (maybe 300M in total), and all my supply chains mapping maps to larger hyperscaler suppliers. AAOI you're coming on with $471m transceiver revenue + 400K ELS units for 2028 timeframe. With hyperscalers + demand eating up all their capacity. There's just a $600m ATM which presents overhang near term. $NBIS already got re-rated but it's very positive upcoming for Q4 2026 (esp. with price hikes). Legacy memory like $ESMT + (some I haven't named yet) + regular memory names like Samsung, I do think will strongly outperform near term. And obviously CPUs names like $INTC $AMD $ARM as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

ADT $7.2B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
PRIM · long

Primoris Services CORP

Primoris Services, a $5 billion EPC contractor, has fallen about 60% from its peak.

PRIM $3.9B
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