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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3 margins and non-GLP biologics demand.

STVN $5.4B
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Fajasy on X

Fuel Tech's $FTEK new CEO used his first earnings release to make acquisitions part of the plan, with $27.8M of cash and investments against a $44M market cap. Ramesh Nuggihalli, a former COO of competitor CECO Environmental $CECO, took over the power plant pollution-control company in August. He's pursuing organic growth in core markets, data center power, and water treatment, plus "select M&A" to add products and sales channels. Its cash and investments come to $0.89/share, ~63% of the $1.42 stock price. So I read the new plan as a choice for the cash: (1) Either it stays the floor under the stock, or (2) it becomes the budget for deals. Q3 revenue rose 16% to $8.7M, and the $267K net loss was its smallest this year (vs. a $303K profit a year ago). But air pollution control (APC) gross margin fell to 40% from 47% a year ago on project mix. APC backlog reached ~$20M with October's $3.3M of awards, but none of this year's awards is a data center order. Q3 also had the year's biggest drop in cash and investments, $1.8M, but receivables rose ~$2.0M as APC projects ramped, so the drop is mostly money customers owe, not money lost. At $1.42/share, $FTEK trades ~19% above its $1.19/share book value and below the $1.72-2.17 sum-of-the-parts in my August 27 deep dive. Would you rather $FTEK spend its cash on a deal or keep it as the floor? I'd rather hear three answers on the November 4 call before giving the new plan credit: 1) M&A: How much of the $27.8M the board would spend, and whether it would pay in cash or in stock trading near book value. 2) Data center: Whether the August talks with a data center customer about paying to reserve $FTEK's capacity are still going. 3) Margins: Whether the ~$20M backlog carries the 40% APC margin from Q3 or the 47% from a year ago.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The 13% puke today is the market questioning whether $CVI is using peak-cycle earnings to justify a transformative acquisition (nearly doubling nameplate capacity). The $MPC assets may be attractive, but shareholders are absorbing dilution, additional debt, and the risk that refining margins normalize before the company can meaningfully delever… $CVI was always sub-scale, so there’s a legitimate strategic rationale here. The irony is that the best time to buy cyclical assets is usually when you can least afford to finance them…

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

XPEL's Manufacturing Build-Out

XPEL plans to spend $75 million to $150 million on manufacturing, targeting 52-54% gross margins and high-20s EBIT margins by 2028.

XPEL $1.3B
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Portfolio Update January 2026

DInvests sold Thermo Fisher, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Edwards Lifesciences, then bought Pool Corp and Kraft Heinz while adding to…

POOL $7.7B
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