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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$SSTK: $4.14, $153M mkt cap, ~$317M EV, ~$90M of TTM FCF. That's ~59% of the market cap in one year of free cash flow, ~3.5x EV/FCF, and 0.17x sales. Down 78% this year. This is the crazy one. Shutterstock sells stock photos, footage and music to marketers, and AI image generators are eating that business. Revenue is down 11% to $901M. The Getty merger died in July after the UK regulator demanded a sale of Shutterstock's editorial business and Getty walked away. Getty then filed Chapter 11 on Oct 21, and Shutterstock suspended its dividend to pay down debt. Then on Oct 28 founder Jon Oringer came back as CEO and Chairman. He owns ~30%, and his stake is down ~80% this year. X is split: one guy called him checked out since 2020 and "an even worse COB," another called it the start of a serious shake-up. Either way, the founder who owns almost a third of the company now has every reason to fix it or sell it. Value Line still rates Financial Strength B. You're paying 3.5x free cash flow for a melting ice cube, so the question is how fast it melts. If FCF falls 20% a year it still roughly pays back the whole EV in about five years. Q3 is Nov 5. Size it like a lottery ticket. Not investment advice. Do your own work.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$TBBK: $46.75, $1.91B mkt cap, 8.2x trailing earnings and ~6.6x the new 2027 guide ($7.00-7.20), a 36% ROE, and 11% fewer shares than a year ago. $200M of buybacks this year, about 10% of the market cap. The Bancorp is the bank behind a lot of the fintech cards in your wallet. Fintechs bring the customers and Bancorp holds the deposits, which cost it almost nothing. Q3 EPS was $1.53, up 30%, fintech fees grew 19%, and payment volume grew 23% to $54B. The stock still fell 7.5% Friday because they cut the 2027 target from $8.10-8.30 to $7.00-7.20. In September Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank, its other partner bank, and the market read that as Chime eventually leaving. The bears have been loud and sometimes right. A VIC short in Dec 2023 at $38.93 called the earnings unsustainable and the accounting aggressive. On X, one guy called the guide-down "easy to call" before it happened, and others flagged the small business lending exit, layoffs, and a lending head leaving with a $2.5M package. But since that short the share count has gone from 54M to 41M, and the stock is higher. Even on the reset numbers you're paying ~6.6x 2027 and ~5.8x their preliminary 2028, and they plan to buy back ~100% of net income from 2027 on. Value Line cut it to Technical 5 on Friday, so nobody wants it. The whole question is how much Chime volume leaves. Management calls the new 2027 number a baseline, so watch whether it holds.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$ANGI: $5.99, $243M mkt cap, $189M of cash vs $422M of debt, ~$477M EV, ~4.3x EBITDA. Shares down 16% in a year and the stock down 55%. Angi is HomeAdvisor plus Angie's List, the place you find a plumber, spun out of IAC in April 2025. I won't pretend it's clean. Q2 revenue fell 11% to $248M, service requests fell 6%, guidance got pulled, and management pushed a return to growth into 2027. Refinancing the bonds due within a year is the top priority. So why is it here? JLHR wrote it up on VIC in May 2025 at $15.75 at 6-6.5x EBITDA. His point was that everyone was staring at revenue and missing how much better the earnings power had gotten. It's 4.3x now. Since then the share count is down 16%, BlackRock just disclosed a 12.5% stake, and July's EBITDA margin ran ~700bp above Q2. They also bought Contractor+, a back-office app used by 50K contractors, to make Angi part of the pro's daily workflow. Value Line gives it a 5 for Performance and a 5 for Safety, the scariest costume in the issue. Investor day is Nov 17. If the refi gets done and revenue stops falling, you're paying ~4x EBITDA for one of the best-known brands in home services. If not, it's a lot of debt for a $243M equity.

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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