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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@stockgutter 1 click

SG on X

$ZURA Q3 report looked fine to me. All eyes awaiting H2 readout. Just bought this last week, covered by calls. Options premia were off the charts then and still are quite large (e.g. while the stock was trading 3.36, my net price for the portion I covered with Nov 5C was 2.46. Even less for the portion I covered w Mar 7.5C). I realize readout could occur before Nov expiry and the options reflect the risk of a bad readout. I'm comfortable taking that risk.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Anthropic also had three run-ins with the U.S. government in 2026: 1) On February 27, the President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic's models, and the Department of War designated the company a supply-chain risk to national security. Anthropic largely won its district court case, but lost a separate 2-1 ruling at the D.C. Circuit on September 25, 2026, and has asked the full court to rehear the case. 2) In June, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all customers when the Commerce Department restricted their export worldwide (since lifted). 3) In October, the FTC sent Anthropic a civil investigative demand (a formal request for information) on its consumer protection, data protection, and privacy practices, and the safety and security of its products. Anthropic also still owed $1.2B of its $1.5B Bartz settlement with book authors as of June 30, 2026, and faces training-data suits from music publishers, Canadian authors and news publishers, and Reddit $RDDT.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I'm sorry it's a pretty bold claim "a better $NVR" I should elaborate. Cury looks like NVR transplanted into a structurally tighter housing market, with even stronger current unit economics. On an apples-to-apples S&P Global methodology, Cury generated 84.2% ROIC in 2025 versus 47.0% for NVR, while Cury's inventory turned 3.77x versus NVR's 3.26x. (https://t.co/pMkkNhSOWD). ROIC is preferable here to ROE or EPS because NVR's enormous buybacks reduce shares and equity and can make per-share growth and ROE look better. The opportunity set is also more extreme: Brazil's official housing deficit is 5.77 million homes, equal to 7.4% of occupied households, while Freddie Mac estimates the U.S. shortage at 3.7 million units against roughly 150.8 million housing units, or ~2.5% of housing stock. FJP Cury then concentrates affordable housing in São Paulo and Rio, precisely where affordability and housing scarcity are most acute because these are the richest cities in Brazil, while using land swaps, customer presales and subsidized MCMV financing to keep remarkably little of its own capital trapped in each project. The result is basically the feature that makes NVR exceptional pushed further: Cury currently turns each real of invested capital substantially harder, while operating against a relative housing shortage several times larger than America's.

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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