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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

$FLEX looks interesting into the Axiom spin in Q1 2027. I think everyone can agree RemainCo is worth somewhere in the $40s, so the only real disagreement is what value to assign Axiom. You’re getting a cloud and power infrastructure business growing at gangbuster rates (80%+ FY28 revenue growth) that just raised $2bn of convertible preferred from General Catalyst at a $37.5bn EV… Meanwhile, at ~$77, the market is implying Axiom is worth ~$33/share. Some SOTP estimates have it north of $100. Obviously there are legitimate concerns around capex, working capital and FCF conversion, but that’s a pretty enormous disconnect. November 10 Investor Day should be interesting…
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Clearwater Paper $CLW is a sitting duck for an aggressive activist. Stock is down 30% today. Management has zero at risk capital and all of the shares they own were given to them. No insider buys and only sells. Then this Stanford goofy comes in and buys their Augusta Mill for a ridiculously stupid valuation. He spent shareholders capital at the peak of the cycle for this capex pig at $1,184/ton. This mill has been a problem since day one and now is driving the stock down 30% today because they have to spend even more money on downtime for this POS. And then Mr. Arsen puts this POS in his header on LinkedIn. Only way they can realize value for this is by selling entire company or literally Arsen changing his name to Arson and torching this thing to the ground. The only thing Arsen is doing is torching shareholder capital here. There is no one stopping an activist here imo. Management owns 2% of the shares all from awards. No open market buys from insiders, only sells. Shareholders are visibly unhappy with say on pay support falling four years in a row and 2026 equity pay passed with only 54.5%. There is also no poison pill, all eight seats are up at the 2027 meeting and there is a fat change in control so management will get paid if you can get this dog shit sold. Also bank debt can be prepaid at par and that won't block a buyer. Suzano was exploring a bid in 2024 and Koch/Georgia-Pacific are logical buyers. Idea is to buy all the dog shit $CLW owns and shut it down and it fixes the oversupply in the market. Activist playbook is to buy a big block, flip the board, run a sales process and focus on capital discipline. I think you could sell this for $560/ton which is around $31/share, more than 2x current valuation. Management has blown their entire load on this dumb Augusta facility at the peak and it continues to cost shareholders who have at risk capital money. Management are employees who get paid no matter what happens. Activists should apply here. Fat pitch imo.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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