Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
Monday, November 2, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Lee Roach on X
Why are coal names down across the board? I see pricing up. Is market nervous about contracting season? What am I missing. Like $BTU here. Any other ones I should spend time on?
John_Hempton on X
@AMCOverNoise I am glad you have the skill to buy gems like $AMC
John_Hempton on X
@224osk It is very sad. But I will die happy as you are buying $AMC.
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X
@citrini New fear for $COLD and $LINE unlocked
SG on X
@kiwicarrotcake still might be a good gamble. Just saying that sure as night follows day, $OKLO will spend some of its kitty and probably not wisely.
A Capital on X
Interesting underperformance in $MGM vs. comps… https://t.co/oOOmxIWY7Y
John_Hempton on X
So glad to see $AMC up so much. Apes are buying. They deserve it.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds October 2026 AAK $4.7BVIMGF $2.2B
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities 3Q 2026 LASR $2.1BTWST $9.3B
- Palm Harbour Capital third quarter 2026 CEVMF $5.3BCIRSA $3.4B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 AAP $2.9BCUUCF $5.3B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BCALY $2.8B
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 AVOL $8.1BFCODF $4.5B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 VVV $4.3B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.6B
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal
Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.
Kratos: Strong Organic Growth And Production Ramp-Ups Support A Buy Rating
Kratos posted Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 30.5% to $458.8 million as unmanned systems, propulsion and defense-electronics production ramps…
Arizona Equity Research 
Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Earnings
Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…
Enova International (ENVA): Leading US Online lender with excellent track record
Enova’s Q3 2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion as originations rose 31%, while its failed Grasshopper Bank bid drove a 23% one-day stock…
AppFolio 3Q26 Business Recap: AI Agents Support Growth
AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.
TTM Technologies: The Market Already Caught On To Peak Numbers
TTM Technologies’ record Q3 and data-center exposure drove a 27.7% stock drop as investors questioned debt-funded growth, leverage and the…
Nicolas Bolsinger 1 click
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXIII
Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…
The Data Center Bridge
Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…
PTRN · short Pattern Group INC
Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.
Alsea: Durable Growth at 5.4x EBITDA (Ticker: ALSEA)
Alsea, Mexico’s Starbucks, Domino’s and Burger King franchise operator, trades at 5.4x EBITDA while funding remodels, Mexican expansion and…
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste: Quant Ratings Say Sell, But The Underlying Moat Says Strong Buy
ASR’s $992 million Motiva acquisition broadens its South American airport network after a 25% YTD decline, while its 8.5% FCF yield and…
C Jessen 3 clicks
Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update
Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…
Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation
Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…
Roman Vitasek 4 clicks
Thursday Tailwinds #8: Sep 24, 2026
ResMed benefits as Eli Lilly-funded sleep-apnoea diagnoses expand PAP demand, while NOV’s geothermal cutters and Po Valley’s unhedged…
Navios Maritime Partners: Significant Upside Still Ahead
Navios Maritime Partners targets $150-plus per unit by late 2027 as dry-bulk cargo demand, fleet scarcity and $200 million of buybacks…
J Mintzmyer 1 click
A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t
ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…
Research Roundup Vol. LIII
Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…
$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…
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