Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Back to today

From X

@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$ABVX We've been here before, about three months ago. Price is controlling the narrative again. In June people extrapolated a handful of malignancy cases into a broken thesis, the stock fell 43%, and then erased a month of losses in a single day when the next data landed. Nothing about the asset changed in either direction. I think the same thing is happening now. The price is lower, so people have decided shareholders are doomed and nobody is ever going to buy the business. The fair argument against me is that the probability of a takeout has fallen, because it hasn't happened yet. List your house, get no bids in 60 days, and that tells you something about your asking price. Silence is information. But big pharma M&A is a market with half a dozen real buyers, competing priorities, and internal politics. Deals come together in weeks or in years. The signal from "no deal yet" is extremely noisy, and people are treating it as a clean efficient market. I think the bigger problem is what shareholders were assuming in the first place. If you expected a $180-200 takeout within three months, at today's price that is a 78% return in a quarter. Call it 50/50 to be "conservative" and you are still assuming roughly 39% a quarter or 270% annualized. (Change the numbers to levels a month ago and you still get the same directional craziness) So the problem was never the price target. Targets have a defensible basis. The problem is the clock. My view: $150-200 over the next 18 months, either from a buyout or from a credible launch trajectory. From here that is 25-50% annualized, which is a number a portfolio can be built on. Roughly the same price everyone else is talking about. I just don't have the same timeline expectation. If a buyout comes sooner, that is the better outcome, not just the faster one. The asset is worth more inside a company that already has a GI salesforce than it is standalone. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in ABVX. Views expressed are current opinions for informational and educational purposes only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. See the disclosures link in bio for more important information.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Voss Capital has been increasing its position in Euronet Worldwide $EEFT and sending angry letters, pushing the company to review strategic alternatives. Despite almost all fundamentals moving in the right direction, Euronet's share price had a horrible 2025, mostly on (fears of) increasing competition from digital-first rivals such as Wise and Remitly. Voss argues that parts like payment processing and money transfer could be valued more highly on their own. A full sale could deliver even more (100%+ potential), as it will also monetize Euronet's global licenses and cash generation. Also, it is worth noting that Euronet has been (and continues to be) a true share cannibal.

Investor Letters

All letters

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 73 of 273

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

307 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.