Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
$ACMR https://t.co/gzKlQTn1pF
@SovietInvestor ok well $RYN sells for $1,800 per acre...
A formal phase-two strategic review is now underway. Transaction comps imply 10–14x EBITDA versus $PBI’s much lower multiple. Greystone’s conservative value is in the mid-$20s versus ~$16.50, with a deal offering further upside.
AI could pressure $DOX revenue, but also lower delivery costs. If the embedded managed-services franchise holds up, modest growth and buybacks could drive attractive returns without a heroic recovery. The key risk is AI savings flowing to customers rather than shareholders.
9/ $PBI pitch by @GreystoneCap Pitney Bowes owns a sticky postage-meter installed base and the only national-scale US presort network. The market still treats it as a terminally declining mailing-equipment business.
8/ $DOX pitch by Rewey Asset Management ~7x FCF for mission-critical telecom software priced like an AI casualty. Roughly two-thirds of Amdocs’ revenue comes from long-term managed services built around proprietary billing and customer-care systems that are risky to replace.
5/ $FOUR pitch by Emeth Value Capital Shift4 is an end-to-end payments platform dominating attractive verticals. It is the #2 US restaurant POS provider, serves ~40% of US hotels and processes payments for 75%+ of professional sports venues.
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.
Kratos posted Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 30.5% to $458.8 million as unmanned systems, propulsion and defense-electronics production ramps…
Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…
Enova’s Q3 2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion as originations rose 31%, while its failed Grasshopper Bank bid drove a 23% one-day stock…
AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.
TTM Technologies’ record Q3 and data-center exposure drove a 27.7% stock drop as investors questioned debt-funded growth, leverage and the…
Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…
Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…
PSN · long Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.
Rithm Capital’s 0.74x-book valuation and 2.2x dividend coverage contrast with Dynex’s payout above earnings, leaving RITM better positioned…
Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…
Duolingo sacrificed over $50 million of 2026 bookings to reduce free-app friction, reaccelerate daily users and target 100 million DAUs by…
Signet Jewelers cut its share count from 87 million to 38 million since 2012 as short interest reaches 15%, amid a hated diamond market.
Six Value Line small caps including Blackbaud, Marqeta, Ranger Energy and Definitive Healthcare trade on net cash, buybacks, low multiples…
EXLService's AI-led business, 61% of revenue and growing 30% year over year, trades at 18 times forward earnings after legacy digital…
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ally’s improving credit and capital returns, Pepsi’s weak beverage brands, and Match Group’s plan to revive…
Oscar Health raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $600 million-$800 million after ACA-marketplace expansion drove 60% membership and…
HFI Portfolio bought 94,214 shares of Transocean, RIG, for $570,000 at $6.05 per share.
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