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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

When I first wrote up Quantum $QMCO on May 6, 2026, at $7.36/share, it traded at ~0.85x EV/Sales. By my August 16 update, where I said I’d look again if its sales multiple gave back part of its re-rate while demand still outran supply, $QMCO was at $26.11. The stock then ran another 32.1% to a $34.50 close on October 2, 2026, a week before $QMCO fired its CFO. At $20.25/share, $QMCO has a market cap of $798.1M and an EV of $825.3M ($902.3M on 44.6M diluted shares - $77.0M of cash, including the $22.6M warrant and option holders would pay to exercise, with no debt). That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak and 3.7x at the $26.11 price in my August update (measured the same way), but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So $QMCO isn’t cheap on profits yet, since its adjusted EBITDA margin is still under 10%. The sales multiple has given back part of its re-rate, and by management’s account, demand still outran supply as of the June-quarter call.

Investor Letters

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $33B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Intuit FY2026 Earnings Review

Intuit beat FY2026 estimates despite a $293 million restructuring charge, reset growth ambitions and will include stock-based compensation…

INTU $89B
Global Outperformers

Research Roundup Vol. L

Wolfspeed, Nordson and Nucor target AI data-center demand through 800-VDC power, chip testing equipment and domestic steel capacity, aided…

WOLF $1.2BNDSN $18B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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