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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$RBLX no victory laps I gave up my short a long time ago. Felt the stock was manipulated by insiders to gas monetization and trends with smash and grab tactics like grow a garden drops, etc. That policy that drove the stock higher is also their undoing as the comp trends reverse and monetization declines. But the real undoing here is that he company, and I solely would call out the CEO who has majority voting power, that it is their lack of seriousness around safety that is undoing their platform and could ultimately completely unravel their business. Most parents I talk to won't let their kids play on Roblox even if they had in in years past. They are more comfortable giving them a switch to fulfill any gaming time because of the lack of safety concerns. David had a concept and it took off, got scale, built a genuine niche marketplace and network and he continues to squander that opportunity with poor operating efficiency (see costs), awful capital allocation, and some of the worst governance of any company over a $1B I have seen by dismissing the open problems on his platform, then only after issues are very public making half attempts to put in safety controls like age verification that he touts on Bloomberg interviews the day of. Its a shame the CEO has voting control, because if you could remove him their could be potential here at current prices based of the network, cash flow and the ability to dramatically improve monetization with advertising and brand partnerships over time. But you would need a big public campaign directed at parents on Bloomberg that the company is serious on safety and protections and will clean up their user account issues, and get serious on capital allocation (one buying shares to cover dilution regardless of share price is garbage policy - have conviction, buy when its attractive, and stay out when its not). @BillAckman said he was psychologically short after he walked from Herbalife, not the same as making money alongside your conviction but the best shorts are often complicated to fully execute on. But few public companies that feel more satisfaction in going down then Roblox due to their management team and disregard for their users safety
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

A friend mentioned MarketAxess $MKTX to me years ago. I followed it for a while but never acted on it. Despite the 44% premium being paid by $ICE to acquire the company, given the five year performance of the stock, this almost feels like a take under. Reminds me of the CBIZ $CBZ acquisition by Grant Thornton from earlier this week. Even after the acquisition related pop in the stock, $CBZ is still down more than 27% over the last year.

Investor Letters

All letters

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $17B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $33B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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