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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

A lot of green in AI land today from $NBIS +11.2% to $CRDO +10.8%. Over the past few weeks, financing has been the main pressure point but it seems like we've made some solid progress this week. - $META raised $97.5B, with $60B of that coming through an ATM starting in January. - $SPCX signed a $40B deal for GPU equipment. - $AVGO set up a $63B SPV to fund custom chips for Anthropic, who also eased some fears with their S-1. Feels like the rapid de-grossing over the last few weeks has mostly run its course, however according to JPM, volumes still remain light. Interestingly, GS say that there's evidence today of "increased offense being played across the AI complex". While this is still minimal, it's a notable uptick vs. the past few weeks where risk was near zero. I wonder whether the market decides to pay attention to the upcoming hurdles, or whether it keeps riding the wall of worry higher. I personally still land on some short-term choppiness when you consider how bruised investors have gotten since July + hurdles in the next few days (hyperscaler earnings, FOMC, midterms).
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Back in February I wrote up Sunstock $SSOK, a tiny public company that owned Mom's Silver Shop, a single coin shop in Sacramento. The thesis was simple. The last public financials showed 27,317 oz of silver and 80 oz of gold. At the time, with silver at $113 and gold at $5,340, that was about $3.5M of bullion. The market cap was about $67k. Liabilities were about $753k. Net of those, I got about $2.76M of value, or about $0.45 a share. The catch: the company went dark. In March 2025 it filed a vague late-filing notice, then nothing. The stock moved to the expert market. The shop closed. Someone reached out and told me the prior owner had said the CEO was arrested for fraud and his home and store were raided. I've never been able to confirm that. So it came down to two outcomes. Either the metal is gone or fake and this is a zero, or it's real, authorities have it, and something eventually comes back to shareholders. Where it stands now The metal has gotten cheaper. Silver is around $53 and gold around $4,010. That puts the bullion at about $1.78M. Net of liabilities, about $1.02M, or about $0.17 a share. The stock is quoted around $0.0185, a market cap of about $113k. So it's still about 9x on paper, down from the roughly 40x I wrote about. Most of that move is just silver coming off its highs. All the non-news No SEC filings since the March 2025 notice. Still flagged delinquent. No DOJ press release, no court record, no local news I can find tying the CEO or the company to an arrest, raid, or seizure. No receivership or custodianship filing I've found. One odd data point: in June 2026 the transfer agent verified a new share count, 6,121,873, up 15,000 shares. Small, but someone is still dealing with the transfer agent. That's it. Eight months of silence. So here's the ask If anyone knows anything about $SSOK, Sunstock, or Mom's Silver Shop in Sacramento, I'd love to hear it. Court records, the transfer agent, the former owner, people who used to shop there, anything. Let's see if we can piece this together. DMs are open.

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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