Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

We see $NVDA seeking more power over its HBM suppliers by making Samsung, SK hynix and Micron ($MU) conform to the same base die design for NVHBM, its custom memory. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia asked all three to make the NVHBM base die at TSMC ($TSM), citing consistent performance across suppliers and less validation work per supplier. Samsung reportedly agreed. The base die is the logic beneath the DRAM stack that connects it to the processor, and it is where each memory maker could differentiate with its own logic design. On NVHBM the base die follows Nvidia's standard and carries Nvidia's own memory controller. Our view: this makes the three suppliers' NVHBM stacks much closer to interchangeable. Nvidia can validate each supplier's memory more easily, shift orders between them and push harder on price. The trade-off is more reliance on TSMC. The memory makers are left competing on DRAM core dies, stacking, yield and capacity, which weakens their pricing power with Nvidia on NVHBM. What would change our view: SK hynix or Micron keeping their own logic in the NVHBM base die, or NVHBM staying a small share of Nvidia's memory purchases.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

When Tesla ($TSLA) reports on Wednesday 21 Oct, what we want to hear on Optimus is evidence that it works reliably in real jobs. We hold Tesla as a long-term physical-AI position through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep it small. In our view, an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product. Demonstrations alone do not show it is ready for sustained use in real working environments. On the call, we will be listening for: 1. Reliability in real work 2. Progress on affordability 3. Commercialization timing, which could take longer than investors expect Evidence on those three points would change our sizing. If they are proven, we could consider a weight above 2% over time.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

This is a gift. $MSOS isn’t really a company, and while technically an ETF holding a basket of cannabis operators, I don’t even think of it as an index of companies. It’s a publicly traded proxy for US cannabis regulatory reform, trading near its lows. At $3.81, buying the equity is effectively buying a “perpetual regulatory option” with no fixed expiration date on any meaningful movement toward Schedule III rescheduling, banking reform, or broader federal legalization… Just the cost of waiting for Washington to do something…

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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