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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TZOO. Something happened after I posted this. For the second time someone intelligent reached out sharing their thoughts and insists. They were one of the only people to speak to the CEO in the past year. I’d never looked too deeply but it’s been on Joel Greenblatt magic formula for years now. They underwent a significant business model change. I can attest to the value proposition personally because recently I traveled somewhere where they posted a very popular (very good value) deal. AI is not as much of a threat as it may seem and actually is more likely to be a tailwind which I explain. The business model grew through 2008 so I’m not overly concerned about recession risk, and their reports show that 74% of their affluent travel loving customer base would cut travel last. I think the stock can 4x. It reminds me of $BMBL sentiment and accounting wise. Writeup tommrow
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$TBBK: $46.75, $1.91B mkt cap, 8.2x trailing earnings and ~6.6x the new 2027 guide ($7.00-7.20), a 36% ROE, and 11% fewer shares than a year ago. $200M of buybacks this year, about 10% of the market cap. The Bancorp is the bank behind a lot of the fintech cards in your wallet. Fintechs bring the customers and Bancorp holds the deposits, which cost it almost nothing. Q3 EPS was $1.53, up 30%, fintech fees grew 19%, and payment volume grew 23% to $54B. The stock still fell 7.5% Friday because they cut the 2027 target from $8.10-8.30 to $7.00-7.20. In September Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank, its other partner bank, and the market read that as Chime eventually leaving. The bears have been loud and sometimes right. A VIC short in Dec 2023 at $38.93 called the earnings unsustainable and the accounting aggressive. On X, one guy called the guide-down "easy to call" before it happened, and others flagged the small business lending exit, layoffs, and a lending head leaving with a $2.5M package. But since that short the share count has gone from 54M to 41M, and the stock is higher. Even on the reset numbers you're paying ~6.6x 2027 and ~5.8x their preliminary 2028, and they plan to buy back ~100% of net income from 2027 on. Value Line cut it to Technical 5 on Friday, so nobody wants it. The whole question is how much Chime volume leaves. Management calls the new 2027 number a baseline, so watch whether it holds.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$NTB: $56.15, $2.22B mkt cap, 9.8x trailing and 8.1x forward earnings, a 21% ROE, a 3.6% dividend, and 5.4% of the shares bought back in the last year. ~2.2x tangible book of $25.32. Butterfield has been banking in Bermuda since 1858 and also runs trust and wealth businesses in Cayman and the Channel Islands. Offshore deposits are sticky and cheap, and the trust business is a fee stream that doesn't care about rate cuts. Q3 core EPS was $1.58, flat with Q2, revenue beat at $161.9M, and tangible book dipped 3.3% on bond marks. gary9 wrote it up on VIC in 2017 at $33.94 and nailed why it stays cheap: "NTB screens as expensive on a P/B multiple, while the higher ROEs are dismissed due to a 0% tax rate." Nine years later the same thing is true. 2.2x tangible book looks expensive for a bank, until you see it earns 21% on equity and sends ~9% of its market cap back every year in dividends and buybacks. Value Line rates it Safety 2 with a Price Stability of 75, the steadiest name in the issue. The thing to watch is taxes. If Bermuda's global minimum tax ever reaches a bank this size, the 0% rate goes away, and so does part of the ROE.

Investor Letters

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AEGXF · long

Aecon Group Inc.

Aecon Group’s long thesis targets 50-80% share-price upside over 6-12 months as the company shifts beyond a complex special situation.

AEGXF $3.6B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

indie Semiconductor Deep Dive

Indie Semiconductor’s automotive sensing chips are finding robotics demand, while industrial, navigation and quantum businesses sit inside…

INDI $413M
CV's Substack 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $8.3B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. XLIX

Research Roundup Vol. XLIX covers 3.4% inflation, AI compute demand, data center buildouts, and Q2 reports from Rocket Lab, CoreWeave,…

CGNX $9.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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