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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

Investors are selling $BESI, in our view, because customers increasingly prefer or consider shorter HBM stacks, since HBM is expensive. Our industry information points to customers requesting stacks of four or six memory dies. Fewer layers mean fewer connections and, where hybrid bonding is used, fewer bonding steps per stack, and shorter stacks fit package-height limits more easily with conventional solder. That could delay equipment adoption and weaken the nearer-term HBM opportunity for $BESI, which supplies hybrid-bonding equipment. Logic folding is the tailwind. It places parts of a circuit above one another on vertically connected layers joined through hybrid bonding, so signals travel shorter distances and the chip runs faster on less energy. Those benefits hold even when an inference system needs less HBM, and the layers still need aligning and connecting with exceptional precision. In our view, that can create more hybrid-bonding demand than this delay takes away. Wider folding also pushes inspection and measurement into more logic-chip applications. We expect that to lift spending faster than chip volumes for $ONTO and $CAMT, and for $NVMI, whose materials and chemistry checks address problems that get harder as circuits move into vertically connected layers. Longer term, folding could make chips on established processes more capable for $UMC. That is our prospective thesis, not an announced UMC program. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.4B
Value Investors Club

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4.2B
Monte Independent Investment Research 6 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.8B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.8B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

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