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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

Absolutely right. And here’s why I like the CEO of $RFIL. He’s not touting “hypescalers” in his major TAM. He thinks some benefit will partly arise from the need for edge solutions because of data centers. He’s very quick to say that the opportunities are big in other areas. In my interview with him at the @MSmicrocaps 2026 virtual, I made sure to ask him how penetrated the telecom DAC opportunity was. He said barely. Will be interesting to fact check that, but that means the opportunity is pretty big and wide open. Back on the subject of data centers, I’m also hearing that modular data centers are finally gaining momentum. So, even though RFIL would not have a solution for hyperscalers, I’d presume they can have some presence in the modular business.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

2 questions: How come there are no institutional owners of this business (small cap fundamental funds, not the two ETF asset aggregators)? Whats the right multiple for a business that has burned 20m in FCF YTD (isolating SBC as it may not be a "cash" cost but is dilutive) on 45m in gross profit? Legitimate question? 4.4x ev/sales does not say cheap to me looking at their financial profile or where more asset light businesses are taking currently The history of these type of CapX security companies has been rather poor. Look at $SSTI and theres been others in the small cap space. Maybe this one's different I have only briefly looked at the business a few times over the years.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

If I was @ryancohen at $GME, I would drop the bid for ebay and instead go after Hasbro, Inc. They own Magic the Gathering and if Cohen could get ahold of the MTG IP it would transform the company. Hasbro is only a $12 billion market cap and GameStop has enough capital to do a deal there. Cohen could then dispose of the non-MTG junk and cut costs like crazy. The CEO of Hasbro made $18.6 million in 2025. There is so much bloat you can take out of Hasbro. It is filled with suits that don't own the company and make millions with no risk at the table.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

What makes $MNRO even more interesting is that short interest is ~22.5% of shares outstanding and 41% of the float as not only does Icahn have ~32% of shares tied up, but Gabelli (GAMCO) is also involved. This is probably why cost to borrow is so cheap. Shorts are betting on a dividend cut, but completely ignoring the fact that Icahn/Gabelli and others have 40%+ of the shares. Icahn is now flush with cash from the sale of Pep Boys to Mavis. He can either offer similar terms for $MNRO and buy the remaining shares for $25/share and come away with a superior asset vs Pep Boys or he can push for a sale of the entire company at a similar price or even more. Poison pill expires November 6th... going to get interesting. If there ends up being a proxy battle then all of these shares would have to be called back which would significantly increase short borrowing costs....

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $33B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $117M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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