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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The restart study due in the first half of October at Levack, the flagship mine of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), leaves out a zone where a hole reported in June cut 29.7% copper equivalent over 3.4 meters. Magna found the zone itself. In July 2025, a hole drilled into the footwall below Levack’s No. 3 orebody hit nickel-rich veins. Magna calls the area R2, short for “Rob’s 2,” and says R2 resembles the top of the Morrison deposit, where the nickel-rich veins of Rob’s Zone gave way to copper- and precious metal-rich veins at depth. As of June, R2 spanned ~300 meters vertically and ~150 meters north-south, and all 14 holes Magna had reported hit metal-bearing rock. The June hole’s 3.4 meters included 57.0% copper equivalent (CuEq, which converts every metal into copper at set prices) and 44.3 grams per tonne (g/t) of gold over 1.5 meters. In September, another hole extended R2 ~30 meters toward the No. 3 orebody. The veins are narrow. Magna reports lengths along each drill hole and estimates the veins’ true widths at 30-80% of those lengths, so the June hole’s 3.4 meters could be a vein 1.0-2.7 meters wide (30% × 3.4 and 80% × 3.4). In August, Magna finished a 2950 Level drift (a horizontal tunnel) that stops ~300 meters short of R2. CEO Jason Jessup said on September 24 that Magna plans to extend the drift to R2 “sometime in Q4.” From there, Jessup says Magna could start mining along the veins “as early as Q1 of 2027” and ship the ore to Vale $VALE, ahead of a resource estimate “potentially by the end of 2027.” Jessup says R2 can’t go into the restart study, a preliminary economic assessment (PEA), because it isn’t in a resource estimate yet. Once it’s added, he expects R2 ore to “displace some material in the PEA,” meaning replace some of the plan’s lower-grade tons, since it’s “much much higher margin.” Even after mining 1-2 tons of waste rock with every ton of vein (100-200% dilution), Jessup expects R2 ore to grade “10 to 15% copper equivalent,” 3-4.5x the 3.3-3.4% at McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine (10% / 3.4% and 15% / 3.3%). Jessup also says “there are no streams or royalties on the precious metals” at R2. Franco-Nevada $FNV, the royalty and streaming company, holds a precious metals stream on two areas of Levack, but the technical report doesn’t publish their boundaries, so for now, investors only have Jessup’s word that R2 sits outside the stream.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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