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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i am short $cour -- in the worst case it feels like they should trade at a small discount to their net cash. in the best case, the stock probably does not really do much. interesting even as a case study about large net cash position with a melting ice cube operating business, massive SBC, a big merger, a very low "p/e" the p/e is a bit of an illusion with SBC and a purchase accounting benefit they add back to show good "adj ebitda" margins. by my estimate the business is on track to make -.15/sh of real earnings. if this is true, i also estimate they need to find 45-60m of cost savings to simply break even. this is while NRR for enterprise is consistently collapsing and consumer subscriptions are generating revenues at something like 25% the rate at which they are growing. so maybe they get their deal synergies and get to +.15/sh but how long does that take and it still seems like something has been going wrong with their core business for a while now. linkedin certifications seem pretty solid. for google certifications i think you can just go direct. also the consumer business seems focused on industry certifications, which it seems the big platforms like google is providing at better terms than coursera but have historically partnered with coursera. interesting tug of war there
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$AAPL also prices in the flattering things you've articulated. 35x EPS. Missed on Services revenue w/ a 4 point decel vs a 2 point harder comp. Comp gets harder in September. China revs missed and are slowing. China comps get much harder next year...could easily see 22% growth down to 10% or less. And again, everyone owns AAPL as evidenced by the near 2x market cap appreciation in the last year - thats nearly $2T that's been bought. All the other names have more hair, but much more upside if they continue to execute.
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Some thoughts of mine on Archegos from May 2021 (below). Was Leopold using swaps? The value of Situational’s reported Q1 13F holdings pale in comparison to some of the exposure numbers being mentioned today, even adjusting for appreciation. I would observe that once Archegos blew up at the end of March 2021, many previously impossible shorts (names like $TDOC and $TRUP come to mind) became much easier to navigate and ultimately collapsed… ****** PEELING BACK THE ARCHEGOS ONION The implosion of Archegos is a very important market development and I hope regulators peel back the onion to truly understand what occurred. Archegos owned massive swap positions in companies like ViacomCBS (VIAC), Discovery Communications (DISCA), Tencent Music (TME), and GSX Techedu (GSX), in some cases controlling 20-50% of their tradeable float. Swap ISDA agreements typically limit aggregate ownership in a single company to 4-9%. Archegos appears to have aggressively violated these limits and/or the prime brokers looked the other way, enabling the firm to corner numerous large stocks in the U.S. equity markets. Notably, Archegos owned perhaps 50% of the float of a reputed fraud, GSX. How long has Archegos’ Bill Hwang been cornering stocks like this? He is rumored to have turned $200 mm into $5 b over the past six years (and may have briefly tripled that amount to $15 b during early 2021). What other short squeezes did he orchestrate in recent years? Are other funds using similar strategies as Archegos, and were there wolf packs of funds that Archegos was communicating with on these squeezes? My hunch is that Hwang and his ilk have been cornering stocks for years, with the typical exit plan being the sale of his positions to passive indexes who are perversely designed to buy more of a stock the higher the price goes. This underscores a major issue with passive investing. Archegos’ machinations also created tremendous pain for short selling hedge funds, which provide a valuable ballast for the entire stock market. Furthermore, if you peel back the onion enough, I think you will find an Archegos (or a similar fund) connection to Tesla (TSLA), which was squeezed multiple times until it was added to the S&P 500. Is it possible that Elon Musk, who regularly attacked the shorts, and who in 2018 was making unusual pre-market trades in his own stock at prices well above the prevailing market price, was somehow connected to this action?

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