Thursday, October 29, 2026

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 29 3 clicks

Oct 29 INTC $348B

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

Oct 29 INTC $348B

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 29 1 click

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

@TimelessArie Ticker is $INVH for those curious

@negligible_cap Oct 29

Negligible Capital on X

Thats cool $GOOG shareholders lost around $500B today https://t.co/ejv9K0CnIy

@ChrisCamillo Oct 29

Chris Camillo on X

I’ve never been my personal brand. $AMZN is too significant a holding for me not to share meaningful trading decisions with my followers. But the real value isn’t in the trade. It’s in understanding the rationale behind it which was outlined by posts and on today’s @DumbMoneyTV. That’s how people learn.

@BarbarianCap Oct 29

Barbarian Capital on X

Roblox Narrows Loss as User, Engagement Metrics Fall The video-game company said average daily users were down 9% to 138 million, and engagement hours fell 15% to 34 billion. $RBLX https://t.co/KQM4qbpsbd

@ACapitalLP Oct 29

A Capital on X

$FSLR interesting here at ~7–8x 2027 earnings with 44GW of contracted backlog. Q3 bookings at ~$0.36/W were largely negotiated pre-232, while management is already quoting higher prices on new business. Think the first meaningful post-232 contracts will be particularly informative as to normalized earnings power and ultimately where this should trade…

@convequity Oct 29 1 click

Convequity on X

We wouldn’t be surprised to see GPU rental revenue reach $100bn per gigawatt a year. Nebius ($NBIS) has already reported a short-term deal in the $40m–$50m per MW annualised range. That is $40bn–$50bn per GW. Likewise for Space $SPCX and others while $CRWV sold its long term capacity too early at low prices. Use 660,000 Blackwell GPUs as a simplified 1GW case. With every GPU-hour rented: • $50bn a year = $8.65 per GPU-hour. • $100bn a year = $17.30 per GPU-hour. DeepSeek reports $38 of API revenue per GPU-hour at off-peak prices for a V4.1 Flash cluster. Peak tariffs are double. Serving the same workload at those prices would imply $76 per GPU-hour. For an inference provider that can reproduce those economics on rented hardware, a move from $5–$6 rent to $9 can still be affordable. Even roughly $18 need not make the service uneconomic. Suppose another provider achieves 70% of that $38–$76 revenue benchmark across its rented GPU-hours. That gives $26.60–$53.20 of revenue per hour. After $18 of GPU rent, $8.60–$35.20 remains for other costs and profit. The condition is matching DeepSeek’s serving efficiency on the rented hardware and sustaining paid demand at those token prices. Releasing the inference code does not guarantee either. For operators that can do this, we think there is room to keep bidding up scarce GPU capacity, even at twice today’s roughly $9 hourly rate.

@finphysnerd Oct 29

Myles on X

Rough day to have large positions in $AMZN and $RDDT. Comfortable holding Amazon. Am out of Reddit.

@irbezek Oct 29

Ian Bezek on X

@ClarkSquareCap And arguably more importantly for $ALSEA it's a signal to other American brands to use their services when they want to open in Mexico as well. People were saying opening $CMG in Mexico was like selling sand in the Sahara. And yet they did it.

Alphabet: Why I'm Buying The Free Cash Flow Scare

Alphabet's EPS miss came from a SpaceX stake loss, while 24.7% revenue growth and a $561 billion Cloud backlog counter free cash flow…

GOOGL $3.4T

Cain Lee Oct 29 1 click

Incyte (INCY) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review

Incyte reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $1.56 billion, up 14%, while a $1.23 billion Vega acquisition charge drove a $708 million operating loss.

INCY $24B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 29 2 clicks

Merck and Co. (MRK) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review

Merck reported Q3 FY26 revenue of $18.1 billion, led by $8.6 billion in KEYTRUDA sales and 93% WINREVAIR growth, while raising and…

MRK $369B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 29 2 clicks

Alphabet 3Q’26: Search Worries Weighing In

Alphabet’s Search growth slowed to 12% as Cloud revenue more than doubled, while quarterly free cash flow stayed negative amid the capex…

GOOGL $3.4T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 29 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B

Speedwell Memos Oct 29 3 clicks

Ex-Goldman Oil Derivatives Trader: Every Trading Strategy Is Momentum or Mean Reversion

Simran Jeet Singh recounts pricing oil through WTI’s -$37.63 collapse, then explains crypto perpetual funding arbitrage, market making and…

GS $260B

Odds on Open Oct 29 5 clicks

Carpenter Technology (CRS) Q1'27: The Sell-Off Resets the Entry Point

Carpenter Technology fell 25% after Q1 2027 despite revenue rising 9%, EPS up 34%, and commercial aerospace bookings up 25%.

CRS $15B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 29 3 clicks

GE Vernova: 3 Straight Guidance Raises, And Wall Street Still Doubts It

GE Vernova raised guidance for a third straight quarter as Power and Electrification drove backlog growth, while Wind showed an early…

GEV $241B

Melissa Tucker Oct 29 2 clicks

Alphabet Inc Earnings Update: Fiscal Q1 2027

Alphabet reported $127.6 billion in revenue, up 25%, as Google Cloud doubled to $30.7 billion and 36.2% margins.

GOOGL $3.4T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 29 1 click

Alamos Gold: Minor Delays With Island Gold Growth, But There Is Still A Lot Of Value Here

Alamos Gold targets nearly 1 Moz of annual production by decade-end as Island Gold shaft commissioning offsets recent Young-Davidson…

AGI $12B

Bang For The Buck Oct 29 1 click

The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis

Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…

SMMT $12B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 31 7 clicks

HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake

HBM’s economic, thermal and power costs will drive a 90% volume drop from peak within 7-10 years, while DRAM stocks remain cyclical.

MU $946B

Irrational Analysis May 31

Bubbles, a UK Compounder & Ferrari’s Future

Jeremy Grantham says AI has interrupted a bear market and predicts a 50% market decline, drawing on GMO’s study of 27 bubbles.

RACE $74B

Behind the Balance Sheet May 31

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $22B

Hated Moats May 29

Tractor Supply: A Yield Worth Harvesting

Tractor Supply, the 2,641-store rural lifestyle retailer, is pitched as an undervalued defensive compounder, supported by recurring…

TSCO $18B

D Invests May 29

Natera: Is the Future Worth Paying up for?

Natera's long-term future is weighed against its current valuation.

NTRA $55B

Bearstone May 29 1 click

The Formula Hiding in Plain Sight

Spotify’s 761 million MAUs and investor-day formula explain how it holds off Apple, Amazon and YouTube Music despite their loss-leader…

SPOT $122B

Flyover Stocks May 28

The Dynamics of Inventories, Demand, Friendships, and Risk

Nvidia’s 14th straight beat-and-raise came with a clean balance sheet, while inventory risk tied to Blackwell GPUs has shifted elsewhere.

NVDA $5T

Kakashii's Materials May 27

A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.

Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…

BMY $128B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 26 7 clicks

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $96B

Speedwell Memos May 26 2 clicks

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Negligible Capital on X

Chris Camillo on X

Barbarian Capital on X

A Capital on X

Convequity on X

Myles on X

Ian Bezek on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 70 of 272

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors