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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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On December 4, TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO Ethiopian cells start paying a 15% U.S. tariff, unless Commerce approves its request for relief. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 lets the U.S. president restrict imports that threaten national security. On August 6, 2026, a proclamation added a 15% tariff, from December 4, on the ingots, wafers, cells, and modules made from polysilicon, for Ethiopia and most other countries, plus minimum import prices of $0.22 per watt (/W) for cells and $0.38/W for modules. The proclamation also created an onshoring program, run by Commerce, that grants relief to companies building U.S. polysilicon, wafer, or cell plants, as long as construction under an approved plan begins by January 20, 2029. Section 232 helps $TOYO’s Texas panels but hurts its Ethiopian cells: 1) Texas modules: Imported panels will face the $0.38/W minimum import price from December 4, above the $0.33/W average in Q2 2026 for U.S. utility-scale modules, per the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. 2) Ethiopian cells: $TOYO’s cells are imports too, so from December 4, 2026, they pay the 15% tariff and must clear the $0.22/W minimum price. Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said at its October 6 Analyst Day that using Ethiopian cells means $TOYO’s Texas panels are “not a purely U.S. product,” and that $TOYO has presented Commerce a term sheet for onshoring relief tied to its planned Texas cell plant, though he said many such agreements probably won’t come until after December 4. Notably, Jeffrey Kessler, Commerce’s Under Secretary for Industry and Security, praised $TOYO at its October 6 ribbon-cutting in Texas for “committing to use exclusively US polysilicon,” and his department approves onshoring plans. Still, 30% of the polysilicon in $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells comes from Malaysia. CEO Takahiko Onozuka said on the Q2 call that $TOYO anticipates its Ethiopian cells “will be eligible for the relief under the framework now taking shape.” But he also said in the August 19 release that $TOYO expects an impact on its H2 2026 results, “though the magnitude is not yet certain.” So Section 232 should lift prices for $TOYO’s Texas panels, but it taxes the Ethiopian cells those panels are made from unless Commerce approves $TOYO’s term sheet. I won’t be comfortable with Section 232 until Commerce approves the term sheet, and Resch expects many such agreements only after the tariff starts on December 4.

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CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

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