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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Exploring SaaS survival in the agentic era — $PANW vs $DDOG. Both sit on critical telemetry. Both expose MCP. On paper they look alike. They aren’t. Model labs have a real reason to build their own observability collectors. Coding agents write and ship code; to get better they need production feedback. Own the host telemetry, close the loop. That same incentive is much weaker for cybersecurity endpoint agents. Finding beacons and writing better code are different jobs. Building a Falcon- or Cortex-class sensor estate is years of trust, labeled attacks, and compliance — not a natural side quest for a model lab. Then there’s the screen. Datadog doesn’t own where developers live. They already live in Cursor / Claude Code / Copilot. So those agents pull Datadog in over MCP. The data plane stays sticky; the UI gets shared. Palo Alto usually does own where the SOC lives. The shift starts in the security console — cases, playbooks, response. In a PANW shop, Cortex is the main workplace. Claude can sit on top in a multi-vendor stack. That’s the risk but not the base case. Same idea — agents need the pipes. What’s different is who tries to own the collector, and who already owns the desk. Thoughts welcome. Full Part 3 write-up for Convequity subscribers is on its way.

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My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $20B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

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