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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

I have consistently talked about buying $CUBE in the past year and highlighted their incredible NYC/NNJ portfolio It accounts for 1/4 of the company's NOI, up 5.5% in Q3 on a YOY basis. Moves the needle. Overall NOI up 2.1% YOY High barrier, no rent regs like housing, truly a great asset NOI declines mostly in Sunbelt high supply markets Story is as old as time Bought at a rough 6.7% cap about a year ago at $36 ish now $41.08 plus about $2.12 in dividends since Not too shabby for a 20% one year return for buying a high quality SS with low leverage
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” CUBE $9.2B
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

We wouldn’t be surprised to see GPU rental revenue reach $100bn per gigawatt a year. Nebius ($NBIS) has already reported a short-term deal in the $40m–$50m per MW annualised range. That is $40bn–$50bn per GW. Likewise for Space $SPCX and others while $CRWV sold its long term capacity too early at low prices. Use 660,000 Blackwell GPUs as a simplified 1GW case. With every GPU-hour rented: • $50bn a year = $8.65 per GPU-hour. • $100bn a year = $17.30 per GPU-hour. DeepSeek reports $38 of API revenue per GPU-hour at off-peak prices for a V4.1 Flash cluster. Peak tariffs are double. Serving the same workload at those prices would imply $76 per GPU-hour. For an inference provider that can reproduce those economics on rented hardware, a move from $5–$6 rent to $9 can still be affordable. Even roughly $18 need not make the service uneconomic. Suppose another provider achieves 70% of that $38–$76 revenue benchmark across its rented GPU-hours. That gives $26.60–$53.20 of revenue per hour. After $18 of GPU rent, $8.60–$35.20 remains for other costs and profit. The condition is matching DeepSeek’s serving efficiency on the rented hardware and sustaining paid demand at those token prices. Releasing the inference code does not guarantee either. For operators that can do this, we think there is room to keep bidding up scarce GPU capacity, even at twice today’s roughly $9 hourly rate.

Investor Letters

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BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $2.7B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits plans to expand grocery and export sales, invest in six brands, and improve winery operations through FY29.

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

The Offshore Message From Oslo

Offshore drillers have secured 105 rig-years by September, 42% above all of 2025, as national oil companies lock up long-term capacity.

RIG $7.4B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

Copart 4Q26 Business Update

Copart's U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5% in 4Q26, largely from one customer loss, while international insurance units rose 11.2% and…

CPRT $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

VZLA $1.6B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 1 click

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