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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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The IPO price, share count, and run-rate revenue as of October 31, 2026 are still blank, and so is how much cash Anthropic will spend on employees' taxes for RSUs that settle at the IPO. Anthropic plans to list on Nasdaq as $ANT, with $GS and $MS leading the deal. Five of Anthropic's co-founders are also selling shares in the IPO, although the S-1 leaves the number blank. Anthropic's lock-ups release shares in stages, with 23 scheduled release dates over its first year as a public company, starting on its first trading day. So instead of one lock-up expiration, insider shares can hit the market every few weeks for a year. Read the S-1 yourself on SECSift: Read the S-1 yourself on SECSift: https://t.co/1JG6dtlTu7
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Fajasy on X

Anthropic also had three run-ins with the U.S. government in 2026: 1) On February 27, the President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic's models, and the Department of War designated the company a supply-chain risk to national security. Anthropic largely won its district court case, but lost a separate 2-1 ruling at the D.C. Circuit on September 25, 2026, and has asked the full court to rehear the case. 2) In June, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all customers when the Commerce Department restricted their export worldwide (since lifted). 3) In October, the FTC sent Anthropic a civil investigative demand (a formal request for information) on its consumer protection, data protection, and privacy practices, and the safety and security of its products. Anthropic also still owed $1.2B of its $1.5B Bartz settlement with book authors as of June 30, 2026, and faces training-data suits from music publishers, Canadian authors and news publishers, and Reddit $RDDT.
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Fajasy on X

Anthropic's ~16.9B fully diluted shares already include: → 1.84B Class N shares from $AMZN's notes, which convert at the IPO. → 846.8M shares Anthropic gave its own Public Benefit Fund, which can later sell or donate the shares. More can be added after the IPO: → Anthropic's board can give the fund up to 2% more of the company each time the stock rises 50% above the prior milestone, starting from the IPO price. → Anthropic's new 2026 Equity Incentive Plan reserves up to 2.95B Class A shares for equity awards (equal to ~17% of fully diluted shares), plus annual increases. In other words, every 50% gain in the stock can cost shareholders up to 2% of the company.
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Fajasy on X

$AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT play five roles for Anthropic at once: 1) Suppliers Anthropic has committed at least $269.4B to "regardless of actual usage." 2) Cloud marketplaces that sold ~48% of Anthropic's H1 2026 revenue. 3) Shareholders. 4) Customers. 5) Competitors. Some of Anthropic's suppliers also help fund its compute: → Anthropic can sell up to $20.0B and $15.0B more of notes or non-voting stock to $GOOGL and $AMZN, subject to certain conditions. → Anthropic can sell up to $42.0B of notes to $AVGO or a financial partner $AVGO designates, solely to pay the rent on its five-year chip lease. → $AMD agreed to buy up to $5.0B of Anthropic's non-voting stock in a July 2026 GPU supply deal, if certain conditions are met. So up to $82.0B of Anthropic's future funding can come from the same companies selling it compute.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Meanwhile, here's what Anthropic has signed up to spend on compute: → $GOOGL: $114.5B from April 2026 to July 2033. → $AMZN: $110.0B from May 2026 to April 2036. → $MSFT: $44.9B from November 2026 to May 2033. → Five-year AI chip lease: $125.2B of rent, up to $42B of which Anthropic can fund by selling convertible notes to $AVGO or a financial partner $AVGO designates. → $SPCX's xAI: Up to $120.5B into 2029 for $NVDA GPU compute, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. As of June 30, 2026, Anthropic had $265.6B of non-cancelable compute purchase commitments and $321.4B of signed leases that hadn't started yet, up from $54.6B and $50.2B six months earlier. Anthropic has signed ~$266B more since June 30, which by my rough math brings the total to ~$850B (the S-1's own total is still blank). Add an estimated $125-150B for TPU (Google's AI chip) compute in 2028-2031 that isn't in those figures.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Anthropic's preferred stock price more than quadrupled in ~9 months, from $140.9676/share in its Series F-1 round (August-September 2025) to $259.1364 in Series G-1 (January-February 2026) and $589.0095 in Series H-1 (May-June 2026). After the 10-for-1 stock split on September 17, 2026, the Series H-1 price works out to $58.90/share, which implies a ~$1T valuation for Anthropic's ~16.9B fully diluted shares as of June 30, 2026. $AMZN holds all $6.2B of Anthropic's remaining convertible notes, which convert at the IPO into 1.84B Class N (non-voting) shares at $2.0928 and $5.0478/share, subject to a 12% ownership cap that Amazon can waive. That's why the balance sheet carried the notes at $108.6B as of June 30, 2026, 17.5x their principal.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Non-cash fair-value charges of $68.0B more than account for Anthropic's $66.3B net loss in Q2 2026. $59.6B came from revaluing convertible notes as Anthropic's valuation rose, and another $8.4B came from revaluing Anthropic's agreements to sell more notes and stock to $GOOGL, $AMZN, and $AVGO. Excluding those charges and stock comp, Q2 adjusted net income was $3.0B. Anthropic also generated $3.9B of operating cash flow in H1 2026, vs. $1.5B used in H1 2025. So the net loss reflects Anthropic's rising valuation, not its operations.

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