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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

Not actively. I've been pointing out issues with Neocloud/Colo financing since 2025 from $SLNH to $CRWV debt interest. And maintain my opinion only a few neoclouds would survive in a few years, given they build enough of a moat to differentiate themselves against hyperscalers. So I don't think Elon's comments are completely wrong about Neoclouds, but there's nuances. One example was $NBIS SOFR + 2.75% $3.5B facility with Citibank, which actually has better rates than GPU financing from $2T+ companies. So kinda hard to say neocloud financing has "entirely shut off" since this Citibank facility was announced 3D ago I'm not arguing the merits of Elon's claims here. There's some truth to them, even if they're framed in extremes. I'm happy to hear his opinion on the direction of the industry... but if they're mainly amplifying concerns about competitor downfall (which benefits $SPCX + $TSLA) There's some cause for concern about how healthy that is to the town square dynamic Elon originally envisioned with X.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$NTWK: $7.86, ~$94M mkt cap, ~$19M net cash, ~$75M EV. FY26 (June) was a record: revenue $74.4M, adj EBITDA $9.2M. FY27 guide is $10.5M to $11.4M of EBITDA, so ~7x. NetSol writes the loan and lease software auto captives, banks and equipment lessors run on, the kind of system a lender changes once a decade. The founding Ghauri family runs it and owns ~14-15%. Hidden asset: its majority-owned Pakistan sub, NetSol PK, is separately listed on the PSX at ~$38M, about 40% of NTWK's whole market cap. The stock has nearly tripled off its $2.73 low, so this isn't a cigar butt anymore, you're paying for the growth guide now. Risks: most of the cash sits offshore, minority holders take almost half of net income, Pakistan FX and politics, lumpy license deals. Size it small.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$DH: $1.08, ~$156M mkt cap, ~$23M net cash. Guiding $57M to $59M of adj EBITDA for 2026, so ~2.3x EV/EBITDA and ~18% trailing FCF yield. Definitive sells data on hospitals and doctors to pharma and medtech sales teams. Revenue is shrinking (-9% in Q2) and the stock went from a $27 IPO in 2021 to about a dollar. Now the controller wants it back. Advent (58.5%) offered $1.02 cash on Sept 1, and founder Jason Krantz (17.6%) would roll his stake. The stock trades above the bid, so the market expects the special committee (Rothschild advising) to get more. $1.02 for a 26% margin data business at ~2.3x EBITDA is a lowball. Nasdaq's sub-$1 cure deadline is Dec 15. Risk: a controller can wait you out, and nothing is signed.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$RNGR: $14.71, ~$345M mkt cap, ~$395M EV after the STEP deal. Q2 adj EBITDA $28.6M, so ~3.5x run-rate EBITDA. Ranger runs well-service rigs, wireline and coiled tubing in the Permian and Bakken: the crews that keep old oil wells producing. Unsexy, but maintenance work holds up better than drilling. Capital allocation is the pitch. They've bought back ~4.6M shares since 2023 at ~$11 avg, pay a dividend, and just bought STEP's US coiled tubing assets for $27.5M, ~2.5x expected 2027 EBITDA. Chevron gave them 3 more hybrid ECHO rigs in July. Mgmt is targeting $100M+ of EBITDA against a ~$395M EV. Risk: H1 FCF was negative because customers paid slow (receivables went from $78M to $124M). When that cash comes home, FCF jumps.

Investor Letters

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Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $108M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $291M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $74M
Calvin Blissett 11 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $492M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $292M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $412M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Hidden in Plane Sight

An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…

ASLE $223M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $692M
Irrational Analysis

RI(N)sing higher

RIN prices near all-time highs reflect tighter renewable-fuel mandates, a shrinking credit bank, and biodiesel production shortfalls.

FF $249M
Treasure Hunting 4 clicks

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $649M
Mispriced Assets

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

FUBO $869M
Value Don't Lie

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