Friday, October 23, 2026

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/23/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ally’s improving credit and capital returns, Pepsi’s weak beverage brands, and Match Group’s plan to revive…

Tempus AI: Moderna's New Cancer Vaccine Partner Is The Pick Of The AI Biotech Bunch

TEM $11BMRNA $98B

SA Edmund Ingham Oct 23 3 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

Industry Primers Podcast: Natural Resources Royalty & Streaming, Part One: The Story

Franco-Nevada, Wheaton and Texas Pacific Land built royalty and streaming businesses by buying fixed shares of mines and wells, tracing the…

Oscar Health: Up Over 200% From The March Lows, Still Room To Run (Ticker: OSCR)

Oscar Health raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $600 million-$800 million after ACA-marketplace expansion drove 60% membership and…

It’s time to sell the winners again as Western Digital, Bloom report outstanding results, shares drop

Western Digital and Bloom Energy fell after strong quarterly results, extending the selloff in AI-linked stocks.

OCP 2026: MicroVCSELs are gaining attention, but microLEDs still have a case

Credo’s microVCSEL pivot targets 10–20m data-center links where copper falls short, while microLEDs compete nearer compute on integration,…

Trade Alert - Long RIG

HFI Portfolio bought 94,214 shares of Transocean, RIG, for $570,000 at $6.05 per share.

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

$BAX Is Down 80% and Still Not Cheap

Baxter International has fallen 80% yet remains expensive, making it a short candidate.

Under The Hood, ResMed ($RMD)

ResMed’s 30 million connected sleep-apnea patients, recurring masks and software support a data-driven healthcare platform; 11.9% annual…

Small FPGAs, Big Problems: The Looming Identity Crisis for Lattice ($LSCC)

Lattice Semiconductor faces an identity crisis in small FPGAs, with a short thesis on $LSCC.

Performance & Portfolio Update: Q1 2026

Portfolio update reports a 20.5% Q1 loss, led by WeightWatchers’ 61% decline, while adding Bumble, Oscar and Shift4.

Bread Financial ($BFH): When You Outsource Everything Except the Downside

Bread Financial is a short thesis centered on outsourcing operations while retaining downside risk.

Why Nike ($NKE) Won't Make It Into the Bearhold Universe

Nike is excluded from Bearhold’s universe because cultural relevance and consumer taste drive demand, leaving its revenue model less…

Under the Hood, Copart ($CPRT)

Copart’s salvage-auction network pairs scarce storage land with global online bidding, supporting insurer returns and a durable moat…

AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics

AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.

It Pays to be a Winner: Our ML model and social research layer just went 14-for-16 on Nike’s Q3 call. (Kalshi, Mentions)

First Strike Research’s ML and social-sentiment system correctly called 14 of 16 Nike Q3 Kalshi contracts, reporting 208¢ net P&L.