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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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Calvin Blissett on X

Atlanticus ($ATLC) Upside: ~35% to ~$120. Assumes 2027 EPS of ~$12 (H1 2026 run-rate of ~$10 growing ~20%, consistent with management’s 20%+ ROE target) at 10x. Atlanticus is a technology-driven lender serving near-prime consumers through private-label and general-purpose credit cards. The stock fell 13% after a Q2 beat, as investors focused on rising interest expense ($123 million versus $54 million a year ago) and integration risk from the ~$3 billion Mercury card portfolio. At $87.53, ATLC trades at about 9x annualized 2026 EPS and roughly 2.3x common book value, for a business earning a 28% return on equity. The footnotes show why reported earnings understate the economics. Atlanticus carries its receivables at fair value, currently 96.6% of face, so expected lifetime losses are marked upfront when loans are booked. Rapid growth therefore depresses near-term earnings rather than flattering them, the opposite of most lenders, where growth front-loads interest income and back-loads losses. Excluding Mercury, managed receivables still grew 26%, and the company added 790,000 new customers in the quarter. Management has guided that Mercury product and pricing changes will add meaningful revenue over the next several quarters.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

OppFi (OneMain Holdings ($OMF) is the largest installment lender to non-prime consumers in the U.S. The stock has fallen from the high $60s on fears that sticky inflation and slowing wage growth will squeeze its borrowers, a worry crystallized by JPMorgan’s downgrade to Underweight. At $55.39, the regular dividend alone yields about 7.6%, and Q2 capital generation of $229 million annualizes to roughly $0.9 billion. That’s a mid-teens yield on the market cap for a lender earning 20%+ returns on new loans. The bears miss that OneMain’s credit problem is shrinking. Loans originated before management tightened underwriting in August 2022 now make up only about 4% of the portfolio but roughly 12% of 30+ day delinquencies, so losses should keep improving as that book runs off. Every new loan is still underwritten with a 30% stress overlay and must clear a 20% return-on-equity hurdle. Management reiterated 2026 charge-off guidance of 7.4–7.9% and expects improvement into 2027. Meanwhile, the BrightWay credit card (1.3 million accounts, charge-offs down 186bps year over year) and auto finance (receivables up 14%) are diversifying growth.OPFI) is a tech-enabled installment lender to consumers underserved by banks. Shares have nearly halved this year after OppFi cut 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $1.76–1.84 to $1.34–1.51, as delays in its LOLA platform migration and line-of-credit launch weighed on originations. At $6.03, the stock trades at about 4x the midpoint of revised 2026 guidance and 2x management’s reaffirmed target of roughly $3 of EPS by 2028. The headline charge-off spike is partly arithmetic: originations fell 9% as underwriting tightened, and with fewer new loans in the denominator, the ratio rises. Management expects a return to growth in the second half. The overlooked catalyst is OppFi’s pending acquisition of BNC National Bank, filed with the OCC and targeted to close in Q4. A national charter would let OppFi lend directly instead of through partner banks, removing its biggest regulatory overhang, the “true lender” challenges states use against bank-partnership lenders. OppFi has authorized a $40 million buyback.
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Calvin Blissett on X

GAMCO Investors ($GAMI) is the value-investing asset manager founded by Mario Gabelli, with $36.6 billion of AUM. The shares trade at a steep discount largely because of structure, not operations: GAMCO voluntarily left the NYSE for the OTCQX market, which puts it outside most indexes and institutional mandates. Its public float is small, and voting control sits with non-traded Class B shares held by Gabelli’s family entity. At $25.32, GAMCO holds $231 million of cash and investments with no debt, about $11 per share, or more than 40% of the market cap. With Q2 EPS of $1.07 (up from $0.93 on 13% revenue growth), the stock trades at about 6x annualized earnings, and the operating business excluding cash at roughly 3–4x. Part of its AUM sits in closed-end funds, permanent capital that cannot be redeemed, which makes the fee stream stickier than a typical active manager’s. Key-person risk around Mr. Gabelli is real, and the recent addition of Christopher Marangi to the board supports succession.
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Calvin Blissett on X

Radian ($RDN) is a leading U.S. private mortgage insurer that is reshaping itself into a global specialty insurer through its $1.7 billion acquisition of Lloyd’s carrier Inigo, closed in February. Investors are skeptical of the pivot: Q2 missed estimates as a $30 million reserve charge tied to Middle East exposure pushed Inigo’s combined ratio to 97.7%. At $30.61, RDN trades at about 0.85x book value of $36 and roughly 7x annualized operating earnings of $1.14 per quarter. The core mortgage book is better than ever: primary insurance in force hit a record $284 billion, and higher rates keep policies in force longer because fewer borrowers refinance. Radian still holds $1.45 billion of capital above the mortgage insurance standard (PMIERs), 37% above requirements, and excluding the one-off charge, specialty margins were in the high 80s. Book value grew 8.5% year over year, and buybacks are tracking toward the top of the $200–250 million target.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Virtus Investment Partners ($VRTS) is a multi-boutique asset manager with $152 billion of AUM. The stock has fallen about 20% since August as quality-style equity strategies suffered $14.1 billion of year-to-date outflows. At $132.29, VRTS trades at about 6x annualized adjusted EPS of $5.54 with a ~7% dividend yield, and net debt is just 0.9x EBITDA. The less obvious fact: Virtus’s average fee rate rose to 43.1bps from 41.3bps a year ago despite outflows. Lower-fee equity assets are leaving, while higher-fee alternatives ($19.7 billion of AUM) and ETFs are growing, including the 56% stake in private-credit manager Keystone, acquired in March. One caveat from the footnotes: the noncontrolling interest liability jumped to $152.5 million, largely Keystone, which signals a future obligation to buy the remaining equity. Buybacks have shrunk the share count to 6.6 million.
@calvinblissett 5 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Alexander’s ($ALX) is a Vornado-managed REIT whose crown jewel is 731 Lexington Avenue, where Bloomberg leases the entire office condominium through 2040. The stock trades below asset value because of tenant concentration and a gap in Bloomberg cash rent: in March, Bloomberg agreed to swap $56.8 million of its unused tenant-improvement allowance for free rent from April through December 2026. At $246.50, ALX yields over 7% on its regular $18 dividend and trades at a meaningful discount to independent net asset value estimates in the mid-$300s, with cash approaching $100 per share after the Rego Park I sale. The free-rent period is less damaging than it looks: the abatement is funded from a lender reserve that covers debt service, and full rent resumes in December. ALX sold the vacant Rego Park I to Northwell Health for $235.5 million in May, at roughly double some prior estimates of its value, booking a ~$148 million gain. The sale generated about $97 million of taxable gain in 2026, which REIT distribution rules likely force out as a special dividend.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

PetMed Express ($PETS) is an online pet pharmacy that has collapsed under Chewy and Amazon competition: FY2026 sales fell 21% to $179 million, with a $57 million net loss including a $26.7 million goodwill write-down. At $1.38, the stock trades at about one-third of the $4.00–4.25 per share unsolicited bids the board rejected in December 2025. With $21 million of cash, no debt and about 21 million shares, cash covers most of the ~$29 million market cap, leaving an enterprise value under $10 million, or less than 0.1x sales. The stabilization is tentative but visible: Q4 sales grew sequentially for the first time since FY2024 as AutoShip sign-ups improved, management is cutting $6.1 million of vendor costs, and new white-label pharmacy deals such as Rural King use excess fulfillment capacity. The risk is time: operating cash burn was $28 million last year, so the turnaround must show up within about four quarters. The board says it remains open to future offers.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

"I don't know of any other system that's as good… The snapshot it presents is an enormously efficient way for us to garner information about various businesses… I have yet to see a better way, including fooling around on the internet, that gives me the information as quickly." -Warren E Buffett on Value Line. I will do deep dives on the 2 opportunities you guys are most interested in. I think $GAMI, $ALX and $TREE (due to the narrative) are the most itneresting.

Investor Letters

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 16 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $110M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
UNCY · long

Unicycive Therapeutics INC

Unicycive Therapeutics fell nearly 50% after a second FDA Complete Response Letter tied to a third-party manufacturer for its primary…

UNCY $110M
Value Investors Club

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

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