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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$NKTR Lots of funky action in this name the past few days, some specific to the ongoing court case and some from bio as a whole. Let's unpack it. The jury note, paraphrased as "Is there a difference between breach + $1 and no breach + $0?", spooked the market and sent the stock down sharply. Two sides to this. First, the note is informative, but only a little. It tells us at least one juror sees the $0/$1 outcome as part of their possible resolution space. Where I think the market (or at least fintwit) got it wrong is treating the note as the voice of the entire jury. It could reflect the whole panel, or it could be a single juror's question. It doesn't even tell us direction: it could come from a juror looking for a way to find breach despite doubting the damages case. The price action implied the whole jury is now choosing between $0 and $1, which I think is a big overread. Second, this is NKTR: a retail/fintwit-heavy, relatively illiquid SMID-cap biotech that moves 5% on a random Tuesday with no news. A 10% move on this headline looks extreme, but near-term price action here mostly reflects value-agnostic traders playing local news and liquidity flow, not a considered repricing of long-term value. The bigger picture: the case is largely a distraction from the real value, which is Rezpeg. I'm not a biotech expert, but the sell side and most biotech specialists I respect see it as a likely viable commercial product that's underpriced here. If anything, the case matters mainly as an overhang. An uncertain $0-to-$1B+ claim is hard for any acquirer or partner to price, so resolution in almost any direction clears the path for corporate action. The distraction is creating the opportunity. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in NKTR. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

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