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Monday, October 19, 2026

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 16 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

We think $MNDY needs to make its platform verifiable to lead work management. MNDY has not disclosed its AI ARR in dollars. Our recent SaaS Survival Scorecard report estimates it at about $20 to $30 million as of the end of Q2 2026. Leading AI-native startups in other fields are far larger. In coding, Cognition reported crossing $1 billion in annualized revenue run rate on 25 September 2026, company-wide across Devin and Windsurf. In legal work, Harvey reported on 1 October 2026 that it crossed $400 million in ARR during Q3 2026. We think MNDY has long been highly adaptive, with great leadership and a strong recent cadence of features and products. But revenue growth has slowed, and in our view it has gained little from AI so far, because work management is a hard area for AI. In our view, coding agents suddenly became highly effective around early 2026, and work management has not yet had its own coding moment. Verifiability is the key difference: code can be tested, while most work management outcomes are hard to check. Rather than wait for that moment, how can MNDY make work management more verifiable? It could track and measure the actions taken on its platform and their outcomes, so that everything that happens there is verifiable. MNDY can learn from Palantir. Palantir launched AIP in 2023, its AI platform built on its ontology, and we think that ontology helped Palantir succeed with models much weaker than today's. Could MNDY build a similar substrate or ontology for work management in order to make the work done on its platform more verifiable? We do not claim to have the answer. Our view is that to thrive, and not only survive, MNDY needs to lead work management by making its platform verifiable, however it chooses to do that.
@kevin__mak 3 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

$CORZ Some quick notes on this one. 1) In my view, CORZ has the most economically advantaged deal in the entire HPC industry. Their series of ~590mw of deals with CRWV was heavily tilted in their favor, and no deal after that has the same terms. 2) That deal is 70%+ finished construction, so there's no "if they get it built", it's largely built and should be fully built by early 2027. 3) According to CFO Jim Nygaard, the CRWV infrastructure cost $5.5B but would cost $7.5B to rebuild today, and CORZ holds the first lien. I call this a “capex put,” because IF there’s a problem with CRWV paying its contracts, CORZ has a claim on substantial infrastructure that could be re-leased to another customer. Depending on assumptions (discount rate, terminal value, etc), I see this as being worth $10-$13 per share in todays terms. They still have a ~530MW deal with AMD, plus another 1.5GW of "future expansion". The upside of CORZ is not the same as the other HPC/neocloud type plays. There's very little/no scenarios where I can see this stock going up by 5-10x. But the downside scenario is also very different. This is significantly less risky than its peers, yet, in this indiscriminate "vibes/basket" based market, it often trades very similarly. There lies the opportunity. When the market treats different assets as the same, because nobody cares about the nuance anymore. Positioning: I sold all of my shares between $20-$26 per share and thought I was done with CORZ forever. It's a pleasant surprise to be able to buy them back sub $15. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds positions in CORZ. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

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Twenty Years in the Dark

Tower Properties, $TPRP, went dark after a 2006 squeeze-out cut holders below 300, leaving a Kemper-controlled apartment and office…

TPRP $128M
Orphan REITs 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks
SKIN · long

Skinhealth Systems INC

SkinHealth Systems owns a dominant professional skincare consumables franchise but trades at roughly $115 million market cap and $255…

SKIN $73M
Value Investors Club 1 click

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

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