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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

LendingTree ($TREE) Upside: ~120% to ~$54. Assumes 7x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($148.5 million), less ~$280 million of net debt, across 14.0 million shares. The stock currently trades at about 4x. LendingTree is the largest U.S. online marketplace connecting consumers with lenders and insurers. The stock has fallen 65% from its high, first on a Q2 earnings miss and lowered guidance, then in September on a Wall Street Journal report about Meta’s “Muse” AI agent, which investors fear could let consumers shop for loans and insurance without visiting a marketplace. At $24.43, TREE trades at roughly 4x enterprise value to 2026 EBITDA guidance of $145–152 million. The AI fear overlooks two things. First, insurance is now about two-thirds of revenue ($209 million in Q2, up 42%), paid by carriers buying leads regardless of where the search starts. Second, loan brokering requires state licensing and fraud controls; management notes that ChatGPT and Gemini declined to process loan applications and referred users to marketplaces including LendingTree. Net leverage has fallen from 5.3x in 2023 to 1.9x, removing the balance-sheet risk that once hung over the stock. The disintermediation risk is real, but a 4x multiple prices in a lot of it.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Farmer Mac ($AGM) Upside: ~28% to ~$265. Assumes 2027 core EPS of ~$22 (Q2 run-rate excluding a one-time $7.4 million interest recovery, growing ~12%) at 12x. Farmer Mac is the government-sponsored secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, the “Fannie Mae of the farm.” The stock fell 12% in February after a Q4 earnings miss and has not fully recovered. At $206.92, AGM trades at about 10.5x normalized core EPS and roughly 1.8x book value, for a business with a 19% core ROE and record Q2 core earnings of $5.40 per share (+24%). The underappreciated shift is in mix. Rural infrastructure is now one of the fastest-growing parts of the business: broadband volume grew 58% and renewable energy 55% in Q2, at net effective spreads of 2.30% and 1.72%, versus 1.01% on traditional farm and ranch loans. As higher-spread infrastructure lending becomes a bigger share of $37.2 billion in total volume, Farmer Mac’s spread should expand. Its GSE status lets it fund at near-agency rates. Tier 1 capital is a healthy 13.2%.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Enova International ($ENVA) Upside: ~30% to ~$215. Assumes 2027 adjusted EPS of ~$19.50 (Q2 run-rate of ~$17 growing ~15%) at 11x. Enova is an online lender to non-prime consumers and small businesses. Shares fell from $227 to $167 in September after Enova withdrew its $369 million bid to acquire Grasshopper Bank, following opposition from 20 state attorneys general and two senators who argued the deal was designed to escape state rate caps. At $167.11, ENVA trades at about 10x annualized Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.31. The sell-off treats the bank charter as if it were in the earnings base, but it was option value; the core business is performing. Q2 adjusted EPS grew 33%, originations rose 27% to a record $2.3 billion, and net charge-offs improved to 7.3% from 8.1%. CEO Steve Cunningham stated that Enova’s “future growth and success do not depend on becoming a bank.” The episode also matters for peers: it shows charter acquisitions by non-bank lenders face real political resistance, a read-across for OppFi’s pending BNC National Bank deal. Enova repurchased $19 million of stock in Q2.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Blue Owl Capital Corporation ($OBDC) Upside: ~34% total return. Assumes the shares re-rate to 0.90x NAV ($12.83, +22%) plus a ~12% dividend yield. Blue Owl Capital Corporation is one of the largest business development companies (BDCs), with a $15 billion portfolio of loans to sponsor-backed middle-market companies. The stock has fallen on contagion from its manager, Blue Owl, which gated redemptions at a retail credit fund and sold assets amid fears that AI will disrupt the software companies private credit lends to. At $10.49, OBDC trades at 0.74x NAV of $14.26 and yields 11.8% on its $0.31 base dividend, which is covered by adjusted net investment income of $0.34. A detail in the credit disclosures suggests the marks are already conservative: non-accruals rose to 2.8% at cost but fell to 0.8% at fair value, meaning troubled loans have been written down hard. With 73% of the portfolio in first-lien debt and leverage at a two-year low of 1.11x, the market price implies losses far beyond what the marks show. Every share OBDC buys back at a 26% discount adds to NAV per share, and it repurchased $35 million in Q2. The risk to watch is a shrinking portfolio: repayments ($747 million) outran new commitments ($319 million) last quarter.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Encore Capital Group ($ECPG) Upside: ~30% to ~$124. Assumes 2027 EPS of ~$15.50 (2026 guidance midpoint of $13.50 plus the $1.00 non-recurring refinancing cost, growing ~7%) at 8x. Encore Capital is the largest buyer of defaulted consumer debt in the U.S., operating as Midland Credit Management, and in Europe through Cabot. The stock has more than doubled from its low, yet still trades at just 7x the midpoint of raised 2026 EPS guidance of $13–14 at $94.44. The less appreciated point is that Encore is a counter-cyclical business. Rising credit card charge-offs, the same trend that worries investors in lenders like OneMain, create more supply for Encore to buy at better prices. That’s why U.S. purchases hit a record $372 million in Q2 and collections rose 17%. Estimated remaining collections of $10.2 billion are about 2.4x its $4.2 billion of debt, and the May refinancing should save about $15 million of interest a year. Encore repurchased $27 million of stock in Q2, reducing diluted shares to 22.8 million from 23.6 million a year ago.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Atlanticus ($ATLC) Upside: ~35% to ~$120. Assumes 2027 EPS of ~$12 (H1 2026 run-rate of ~$10 growing ~20%, consistent with management’s 20%+ ROE target) at 10x. Atlanticus is a technology-driven lender serving near-prime consumers through private-label and general-purpose credit cards. The stock fell 13% after a Q2 beat, as investors focused on rising interest expense ($123 million versus $54 million a year ago) and integration risk from the ~$3 billion Mercury card portfolio. At $87.53, ATLC trades at about 9x annualized 2026 EPS and roughly 2.3x common book value, for a business earning a 28% return on equity. The footnotes show why reported earnings understate the economics. Atlanticus carries its receivables at fair value, currently 96.6% of face, so expected lifetime losses are marked upfront when loans are booked. Rapid growth therefore depresses near-term earnings rather than flattering them, the opposite of most lenders, where growth front-loads interest income and back-loads losses. Excluding Mercury, managed receivables still grew 26%, and the company added 790,000 new customers in the quarter. Management has guided that Mercury product and pricing changes will add meaningful revenue over the next several quarters.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

OppFi (OneMain Holdings ($OMF) is the largest installment lender to non-prime consumers in the U.S. The stock has fallen from the high $60s on fears that sticky inflation and slowing wage growth will squeeze its borrowers, a worry crystallized by JPMorgan’s downgrade to Underweight. At $55.39, the regular dividend alone yields about 7.6%, and Q2 capital generation of $229 million annualizes to roughly $0.9 billion. That’s a mid-teens yield on the market cap for a lender earning 20%+ returns on new loans. The bears miss that OneMain’s credit problem is shrinking. Loans originated before management tightened underwriting in August 2022 now make up only about 4% of the portfolio but roughly 12% of 30+ day delinquencies, so losses should keep improving as that book runs off. Every new loan is still underwritten with a 30% stress overlay and must clear a 20% return-on-equity hurdle. Management reiterated 2026 charge-off guidance of 7.4–7.9% and expects improvement into 2027. Meanwhile, the BrightWay credit card (1.3 million accounts, charge-offs down 186bps year over year) and auto finance (receivables up 14%) are diversifying growth.OPFI) is a tech-enabled installment lender to consumers underserved by banks. Shares have nearly halved this year after OppFi cut 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $1.76–1.84 to $1.34–1.51, as delays in its LOLA platform migration and line-of-credit launch weighed on originations. At $6.03, the stock trades at about 4x the midpoint of revised 2026 guidance and 2x management’s reaffirmed target of roughly $3 of EPS by 2028. The headline charge-off spike is partly arithmetic: originations fell 9% as underwriting tightened, and with fewer new loans in the denominator, the ratio rises. Management expects a return to growth in the second half. The overlooked catalyst is OppFi’s pending acquisition of BNC National Bank, filed with the OCC and targeted to close in Q4. A national charter would let OppFi lend directly instead of through partner banks, removing its biggest regulatory overhang, the “true lender” challenges states use against bank-partnership lenders. OppFi has authorized a $40 million buyback.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
GENI · long

Genius Sports LTD

Genius Sports, a sports data and adtech provider, is pitched as a re-rating opportunity obscured by acquisition noise.

GENI $1.8B
Value Investors Club 1 click

HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake

HBM’s economic, thermal and power costs will drive a 90% volume drop from peak within 7-10 years, while DRAM stocks remain cyclical.

MU $1T
Irrational Analysis

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