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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Crean Hill cost Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) US$11.3M in November 2022, and a 2024 preliminary study put the mine’s after-tax NPV at US$137.0M. If R2, the high-grade zone Magna found at its Levack mine, is Magna’s copper and precious metals upside, Crean Hill is its biggest nickel exposure. Crean Hill’s 2024 PEA (preliminary economic assessment) outlined a 13-year, 2,200 tonnes/day underground mine that sells its ore to a third-party mill: → Resource: 18.4Mt indicated at 1.01% nickel, 0.87% copper, and 2.47g/t platinum, palladium, and gold. → Capital: US$34.2M for an advanced exploration phase (early underground work and bulk mining before full production) that earns US$11.6M of revenue, then US$19.6M before commercial production. → Economics: After-tax NPV (at an 8% discount rate) of US$137.0M and a 129% IRR, at $8.50/lb nickel, $4.00/lb copper, $900/oz platinum, $1,000/oz palladium, and $2,150/oz gold. Weighting each metal’s price change by its share of PEA revenue, I estimate Crean Hill’s revenue would be ~32% higher at Q2 2026 prices, even though nickel, 51% of PEA revenue, is the only metal below its PEA price. CEO Jason Jessup says the pre-feasibility study (PFS), due in the first half of October, will use “more realistic consensus metal prices for 2026” and update the capital costs. He expects the PFS to come in “generally in line” with the PEA, with “some additional costs.” Jessup also said in July that Crean Hill’s capital is “not going to be anywhere near $140 million.” Unlike McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine, Crean Hill carries no precious metals stream. To fund the restarts, Magna now has ~US$124M of cash, most of it from Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group that bought 19.9% of the company in August.
@ChrisCamillo 3 clicks

Chris Camillo on X

One of the most important disciplines in investing is constantly updating the best argument against your own position. Not dismissing it. Not looking for reasons it’s wrong. Actually understanding it well enough to decide how much conviction your own thesis deserves. $AMZN has badly lagged the market and many other AI names recently, and I think the counter thesis has evolved. The biggest new threat is agentic commerce. Meta’s Muse and other AI agents could increasingly control product discovery and purchasing, potentially weakening Amazon’s retail and advertising moat. That’s real. But I think it plays out slowly, Amazon will adapt through its own agents, including Project Moonraker, or partnerships that are seeking access into and monetization from the world’s largest ecommerce platform, and in an agent-first world the upside to AWS, Trainium, Graviton and Amazon’s broader AI infrastructure business could ultimately more than offset the advertising dollars at risk. Then there’s Anthropic. A recent barrage of negative headlines around slowing growth and Meta/Microsoft reducing Claude usage has spilled over into $AMZN sentiment. Again, worth taking seriously. But much of that narrative looks incomplete. Anthropic’s revenue growth remains extraordinary, its IPO appears very much alive, and its massive long term commitment to AWS remains intact. We are still early and one can make a strong argument that AWS has more to gain from an open source first AI world than it would lose from Anthropic’s and OAI’s relative weakness, if it even plays out that way. And now sharply higher diesel prices create another near term headwind to Amazon’s shipping margins. That’s real too. But either fuel prices normalize or as with past cost inflation Amazon eventually passes much of the higher cost through while continuing to drive down fulfillment costs. I don’t need the counter thesis to be wrong to own $AMZN. I just need the bull thesis to be more right.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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