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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

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@marginofdanger 2 clicks

marginofdanger on X

I don't know if I fully agree with that. $CBBI trades at 0.4x for two reasons: 1) OTC listing and 2) no buyback. If there was a company sponsored buyback, it would probably trade at 0.6-0.7x and therefore the buybacks would be less accretive. Also if you look at my numbers you'll see that the projected share price in the non-buyback scenario is $16.16 in five years plus $2.50 in dividends vs. $19.10 in the buyback scenario. Pretty close. If you're a short-term holder, you want the buyback to re-rate this to 0.6-0.7x. If you want to long-term compound, it's not clear the buyback is that much better to me.
@marginofdanger 1 click

marginofdanger on X

$CBBI followers- the tables below show two scenarios assuming a sale in 5 years at 100% of TBV: 1) Investor reinvests the .50/yr dividend into more shares 2) CBBI suspends dividend and instead does a share repurchase The analysis shows that the results are roughly the same (BEFORE TAXES). The point here is to show that if you reinvest your dividend you can somewhat replicate the economics of a buyback. One assumption that is likely optimistic in the company buyback scenario is that they'd continue to be able to buy back at 0.4x TBV. If you tinker with that, the buyback is less valuable. cc: @mwphnh

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $786M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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