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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Local oil change companies using vendors like Halron which get their supply from Shell are running out of OW-20 (includes Walmart / CostCo). Huge benefit to $MNRO who sources directly from Valvoline through an exclusive retail partnership. Soon places like TiresPlus, etc will have to implement massive price hikes that will drive market share for $MNRO. Really interesting situation especially since Ichan has economic interest of 33% in the company (16% share ownership / 16% swap agreement) and recently sold the inferior Pep Boys for a valuation that would price $MNRO at $25+. Now that Pep Boys has closed - wouldn't be surprised to see $MNRO get an offer very soon especially given their prime opportunity to take advantage of coming motor oil shortage.
@negligible_cap 1 click

Negligible Capital on X

$TMUS, $VZ, $T, teleco's continuing underperformance today after getting sold hard last week. GS last week blamed Instinct and Muse for the selloff given their ability to negotiate and cancel bills: "While US telcos traded down (TMUS -5.5%; AT&T-2% & VZ -3%) on concerns on X chatter around Meta’s Muse and rival AI agent Instinct has focused on their new ability to make outbound calls to U.S. businesses, including negotiating phone and cable bills on behalf of users. This could become a risk for telcos because AI agents can wait on hold, escalate with support teams, switch users to cheaper plans, remove add-ons and claim credits at scale—potentially increasing pressure on ARPU, retention economics and customer-service costs. The same risk applies to European names as these AI assistant role out. But its NOT just telcos as other industries could also face pressure -industries most at risk are those with recurring bills, negotiable pricing, confusing add-ons, high churn incentives and customer-service friction—including cable/broadband, insurance, utilities, banks/credit cards, subscriptions, travel, healthcare billing, retail returns, auto leasing and gyms. If AI agents can persistently call, wait on hold, compare offers, cancel services, claim credits and renegotiate terms on behalf of customers, companies that rely on inertia or under-claimed discounts could face higher retention discounts, lower add-on revenue, more support volume and weaker pricing power. PS – have been using Instinct for a week of so – its pretty impressive once you get past the hesitance of giving access to parts of your life (not brave enough on a bank account) – book restaurants, tennis courts, highlight must read emails – its also picks up inaccuracies of emails and sources what is inaccurate." - GS Sean Johnstone
@UCompounders 1 click

Undiscovered Compounders on X

Copart $CPRT just acquired $ACVA for $1.9B. The filings came out on the 17th, and I've spent 12 hours a day analyzing everything since. I read so much my eye drops stopped cutting it, had to switch back to vitamin A for the dry eyes. As usual, the reality is way more complicated than anything I've seen on social media so far. I break it all down, and what it means for my Copart thesis. Have fun. (Link in bio/below.)

Investor Letters

All letters

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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