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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$ARTNA: microcap water utility at lowest P/E ever, 4% dividend. 9x cashflow. Family run for 115 years. Sussex county development expands regulated customer base. Wastewater growth engine. Its principal subsidiary, Artesian Water, is the oldest and largest regulated water utility on the Delmarva Peninsula. The company generates stable, recurring revenue by distributing and selling water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers under regulatory frameworks. In addition to its core regulated utility operations, Artesian Resources earns supplementary income from non-regulated activities including contract operations, infrastructure development, and service line protection plans, creating a business model that combines predictable utility income with service-based revenue streams.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Bernstein expects copper to run short from 2027, and the IEA says a new copper mine takes ~17 years to go from discovery to production. So I found a miner restarting old ones, with a CEO who restarted its flagship once before and says it could produce 2-3x today’s output. Its restart study is due in the first half of October, and a much richer discovery at the same mine isn’t in the study yet. That company is Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), a copper miner in Sudbury, Ontario. After more than a century of mining, Sudbury has plenty of past-producing mines to restart. Per Magna’s September deck, Brazil’s Vale $VALE and Switzerland’s Glencore $GLNCY are the only other companies with significant property holdings in the Sudbury Basin, and they run the district’s two mills and two smelters. Magna has agreements to sell its ore to both, so its next restarts don’t need a new mill. Magna’s stock trades at CAD$2.45/share, down 9% y/y and 38% below its CAD$3.94 intraday high on January 29, 2026. Counting its convertible notes, in-the-money options, and share units as shares, and netting out its cash plus the ~US$5.1M from exercising the options, enterprise value is ~US$454M. That buys you McCreedy West, the producing mine that carried Magna to its first quarter of positive free cash flow (FCF) in Q2 2026. You also get Levack and Crean Hill, two past-producing mines with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and a pre-feasibility study (PFS), respectively, due in the first half of October. Notably, Magna’s leaders have run McCreedy West and Levack before. Both mines belonged to FNX Mining, a Canadian miner, before they passed to KGHM $KGHPF, the Polish copper giant that sold them to Magna. CEO Jason Jessup led the FNX team that restarted Levack, and chair Vern Baker was FNX’s VP of Operations. Jessup also says Magna doesn’t plan any more financings after Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group, invested US$99M in August. So Magna could triple or quadruple its output (McCreedy West plus 2-3x from Levack) without raising more money, and R2, the high-grade zone it found at Levack, would come on top of whatever the PEA shows. The question is whether CAD$2.45 is an early price for a multi-mine Sudbury producer, or a price that already assumes Levack restarts well before its numbers are public.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT won a ~$36M U.S. defense stockpile contract for metal its plants already make, while deliveries under its $2B stockpile contract wait on new supply. On September 30, Elmet announced the award from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which manages the U.S. National Defense Stockpile. It covers TZM (titanium-zirconium-molybdenum alloy) billets, bar stock, and ingots, plus molybdenum and tungsten wire, materials used to make jet engine components. Elmet's $2B stockpile contract, announced September 14, is separate and covers tungsten concentrate, the upgraded ore a mine ships. The $36M is 27.4% of Elmet's $131.5M total backlog at July 3 ($36M / $131.5M), and the release doesn't say when deliveries start or how long the contract runs. On the slide for the $2B contract, Elmet's October 1 deck says Elmet "does not intend to begin delivering material into the National Defense Stockpile until sufficient incremental new supply is available." Elmet's supply agreement with Tungsten West (AIM: TUN) puts concentrate from Hemerdon, its tungsten mine in Devon, England, first in line for Elmet's DLA deliveries until Elmet's Nevada refinery is commissioned (targeted for 1H 2029). Elmet expects >1,000 tonnes a year of Hemerdon concentrate, and the mine targets full production by the end of Q1 2027. In September I treated $1.85B of the $2B ceiling as an upper bound, not orders Elmet has in hand, and the $36M sits outside the $2B entirely. So the stockpile's newest award goes to metal from Elmet's existing U.S. plants, while the $2B contract still waits on a mine in England that isn't at full production yet.
@MaiusPartners 1 click

Maius on X

Some $PSIX thoughts off the recent 8-K: The banking syndicate lifted committed capacity from $135m to $220m (+$85m), cut the SOFR margin from +2.60% to +1.80%, and pushed maturity from July 2027 to September 2029 (~26 months). Credit committees are structurally risk-averse. More exposure, less spread, and longer tenor only clears if they like the repayment case. So what are they underwriting that most equity investors still won’t touch? Two things the disclosures imply: 1) Weichai’s North American strategy is locked in. Change-of-control remains tied to Weichai keeping board control and ≥40% ownership (same economic threshold as before). The extension removes left-tail risk that Weichai pursues a different go-to-market path. 2) The extra capacity isn’t for today’s balance sheet. Net debt was essentially zero at Q2’26 (cash ~$70m, debt ~$73m). The new investor materials flag Prime Power as a deliverable for the first time—ranges that overlap $INIO’s data-center gas engines, a segment where $INIO recently highlighted as an area "Chinese players have historically struggled to break in" and hence command "100% market share in several datacenter power ranges". As Bezos put it: your margin is my opportunity. Have a great weekend, everybody!

Investor Letters

All letters

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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