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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

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@convequity

Convequity on X

NVIDIA’s Feynman: CPO Inside, OCS Outside According to supply-chain sources, $NVDA’s 2028 Feynman architecture is planning a dual-layer optical design around the NVL576 rack. An inner layer of Co-Packaged Optics will handle high-density, short-reach connections within and between racks. An outer layer of Optical Circuit Switching will manage larger-scale cluster connectivity, supporting flexible topologies at the 100,000-GPU level. In this framing, CPO and OCS are treated as complements rather than substitutes. CPO addresses density and power at short reach; OCS provides flexibility at longer distances. NVIDIA’s near-term path appears to favour mature MEMS switches to secure delivery schedules, with silicon photonics as the longer-term option once insertion loss improves. Higher insertion loss in SiPh currently requires more optical amplification, adding power, noise and cost — which is why MEMS remains the lower-risk choice for large deployments in the near term. $GOOGL’s earlier move into silicon photonics for inference is expected to help mature the supply chain, potentially making it easier for NVIDIA to follow later. Huawei, Oracle and others are also advancing along related paths.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Photonics Pt.4: OCS Roadmaps Are Splitting Convequity’s latest note examines how Optical Circuit Switching is diverging by workload. High-radix MEMS remains the practical choice for scale-out and training clusters that prioritise scheduled reconfiguration. Lower-latency silicon photonics is being pushed into the scale-up layer for inference, where millisecond switching is no longer acceptable. $GOOGL's V8i architecture is the clearest example. It moves OCS down into the scale-up domain for the first time and pairs it with 2.4T Coherent Lite modules that dramatically reduce fiber and port consumption. The combination is designed to close Google’s main networking gap versus NVIDIA. $NVDA's Feynman (2028) appears to be taking a dual approach: CPO for dense short-reach connections and OCS for larger cluster-level scale-out. Near-term deployments will likely rely on mature MEMS, with silicon photonics as the longer-term path once insertion loss improves. The broader OCS market is projected to grow from ~$400M in 2025 to over $2.5B by 2029 (58% CAGR). Silicon photonics offers a relatively open competitive field compared with MEMS, where incumbents hold stronger positions. We also re-examine CPO’s path forward and assess microLED as a more radical parallel alternative — one that inverts the industry’s “fewer, faster lanes” assumption and is physically confined to short-reach scale-up links. Full Part 4 is now live. Link in the comments.

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $786M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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