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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 11 clicks

From X

@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Energy Fuels $UUUU, the largest U.S. uranium producer, fell 10% to $8.34 on October 14, a new 52-week low, the day after it filed to sell another $500M of stock through its at-the-market offering (ATM). Energy Fuels had already sold ~$300M of stock through the program, and at $8.34, another $500M would be ~60M more shares, or ~22.6% of the 264.8M outstanding. On October 13, Energy Fuels also amended its deal for VAC, the German magnet maker it agreed to buy in June, over a dispute at VAC's U.S. plant. VAC's Sumter, South Carolina plant "was constructed in connection with an offtake agreement," and that customer sent a termination notice on July 1, eight days after Energy Fuels signed the deal. VAC started arbitration on July 7, arguing the termination was wrongful and seeking the payments left on the contract. Energy Fuels says it knew about the dispute during negotiations and built in a purchase price adjustment. VAC itself lost €87.9M (~$99M) in 2025 and €57.4M (~$67M) in H1 2026, even as H1 revenue rose 34.8%. In June, my bear case was $8-10/share: The ATM keeps diluting and the rare earth premium drains out. At $8.34, the stock already sits in that range, while Energy Fuels still plans to pay $718M of cash, 65.9M shares, and up to $135M of preferred stock for a magnet maker in arbitration with the customer its U.S. plant was built for.
@junkbondinvest 1 click

junkbondinvestor on X

Six Flags' stock is trading at its LOWEST level since the GFC...and its bonds are yielding as much as 13%. We're approaching $CRWV territory This is all on the back of the fatal coaster accident in Georgia in what was an already fragile situation. Don’t forget, legacy Six Flags filed for bankruptcy during the last financial crisis in 2009 My thoughts on how this situation could play out, what the docs allow, and cross cap stack rel val $FUN https://t.co/iIISfHsXSg

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 52 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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