Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack Oct 17 13 clicks

Oct 17 COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 14 clicks

Oct 16 CRWV $34B

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman 22 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest Oct 17 10 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded): https://t.co/vVxKgKVCRc

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 5 clicks

A Capital on X

The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.

@gnoble79 Oct 17 4 clicks

George Noble on X

@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?

@calvinblissett Oct 17 15 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?

@finphysnerd Oct 17 2 clicks

Myles on X

Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

My favorite part of this $OWL article… What possible value could investment bankers see in a full or partial sale of the business that the public market is apparently missing? https://t.co/5rjY1IZQv1 https://t.co/yWPrLNBD21

@leevalueroach Oct 17 11 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Wall Street finally started to see the GameStop $GME transformation. Dan Ives just made a comment on the company. Wait until other sheep start piling into the story. https://t.co/PsHMLM94Tv

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $68B

LA Capital Oct 16 9 clicks

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 17 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

GE Vernova: AI's Next Bottleneck Is Electricity

GE Vernova’s 116 GW gas-turbine backlog and $5 billion in early-2026 data-center orders target AI-driven electricity demand, though its…

GEV $251B

Todd Feldman Oct 16 3 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 53 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 13 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 25 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $18B

Hated Moats May 29

Tractor Supply: A Yield Worth Harvesting

Tractor Supply, the 2,641-store rural lifestyle retailer, is pitched as an undervalued defensive compounder, supported by recurring…

TSCO $18B

D Invests May 29

Natera: Is the Future Worth Paying up for?

Natera's long-term future is weighed against its current valuation.

NTRA $58B

Bearstone May 29 1 click

The Formula Hiding in Plain Sight

Spotify’s 761 million MAUs and investor-day formula explain how it holds off Apple, Amazon and YouTube Music despite their loss-leader…

SPOT $109B

Flyover Stocks May 28

The Dynamics of Inventories, Demand, Friendships, and Risk

Nvidia’s 14th straight beat-and-raise came with a clean balance sheet, while inventory risk tied to Blackwell GPUs has shifted elsewhere.

NVDA $5.2T

Kakashii's Materials May 27

A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.

Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…

BMY $122B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 26 7 clicks

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $98B

Speedwell Memos May 26 2 clicks

NVIDIA: The AI Factory Is Still Undervalued

NVIDIA reported $81.6 billion revenue, $75 billion data-center sales and $49 billion free cash flow, then weighs custom chips, hyperscalers…

NVDA $5.2T

Modern Value Investing May 25

The Chains Buffett Forged

Warren Buffett's discipline built Berkshire's 22.2% book-value compounding but excluded high-growth winners such as Amazon, Netflix, Google…

BRK.A $1.1T

Bearstone May 20

Nvidia should buyback stock

Nvidia enters earnings with a case for stock buybacks.

NVDA $5.2T

Fabricated Knowledge May 19

Saturday, October 17, 2026

junkbondinvestor on X

A Capital on X

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