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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@pennycheck 1 click

⚽️📡 on X

I really think this can be a meaningful catalyst for Blacksky Aside from it opening a new vertical and revenue stream, as well as a entirely new TAM. The social arbitrage when every retail investor realizes how cool this tech is and the company behind the imagery and the AI read through on what the images says can be extreme. It is rolling out at first 4 observation sets related to 24 companies but obviously that is only the beginning. I believe this can be the start of a broader inflection of blackskys role in the mega theme i've been discussing the past few months of the value of proprietary data to increase exponentially over the coming months and years as advanced AI capabilities make the value and ease of monetization of proprietary data extremely valueable which also leads into how $BKSY edge in gen-3 having 35cm over the 50cm of competitors planet and satellogic become all the more valuable as AI tools. Many of these data 'moat' stocks have begun to re-rate in the past few months and I think this release on robinhood could be the start of that inflection in the sat names with blacksky leading the way to the social arb aspect of being integrated into hood as mentioned earier. $BKSY is also starting to become a massive beneficiary of the sovereign space infra spend which i've discussed and highlighted before with a now robust pipeline on sovereign deals through 27' as they discussed on the call. They also have moonshot upside working with the Air Force on orbital data centers. Shorts have begun to cover but still have a looooong way to go 20% is still short and as you probably know I am not a big TA guy but even i can spot a triple bottom I think it's a decent risk/reward assuming mkt can hold up a bit here
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Crean Hill cost Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) US$11.3M in November 2022, and a 2024 preliminary study put the mine’s after-tax NPV at US$137.0M. If R2, the high-grade zone Magna found at its Levack mine, is Magna’s copper and precious metals upside, Crean Hill is its biggest nickel exposure. Crean Hill’s 2024 PEA (preliminary economic assessment) outlined a 13-year, 2,200 tonnes/day underground mine that sells its ore to a third-party mill: → Resource: 18.4Mt indicated at 1.01% nickel, 0.87% copper, and 2.47g/t platinum, palladium, and gold. → Capital: US$34.2M for an advanced exploration phase (early underground work and bulk mining before full production) that earns US$11.6M of revenue, then US$19.6M before commercial production. → Economics: After-tax NPV (at an 8% discount rate) of US$137.0M and a 129% IRR, at $8.50/lb nickel, $4.00/lb copper, $900/oz platinum, $1,000/oz palladium, and $2,150/oz gold. Weighting each metal’s price change by its share of PEA revenue, I estimate Crean Hill’s revenue would be ~32% higher at Q2 2026 prices, even though nickel, 51% of PEA revenue, is the only metal below its PEA price. CEO Jason Jessup says the pre-feasibility study (PFS), due in the first half of October, will use “more realistic consensus metal prices for 2026” and update the capital costs. He expects the PFS to come in “generally in line” with the PEA, with “some additional costs.” Jessup also said in July that Crean Hill’s capital is “not going to be anywhere near $140 million.” Unlike McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine, Crean Hill carries no precious metals stream. To fund the restarts, Magna now has ~US$124M of cash, most of it from Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group that bought 19.9% of the company in August.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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