Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack 41h ago 12 clicks

46h ago COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 14 clicks

Oct 16 CRWV $34B

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman 22 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest 46h ago 10 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded): https://t.co/vVxKgKVCRc

@ACapitalLP 47h ago 5 clicks

A Capital on X

The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.

@gnoble79 Oct 17 4 clicks

George Noble on X

@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?

@calvinblissett Oct 17 14 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

My favorite part of this $OWL article… What possible value could investment bankers see in a full or partial sale of the business that the public market is apparently missing? https://t.co/5rjY1IZQv1 https://t.co/yWPrLNBD21

@leevalueroach Oct 17 10 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Wall Street finally started to see the GameStop $GME transformation. Dan Ives just made a comment on the company. Wait until other sheep start piling into the story. https://t.co/PsHMLM94Tv

@convequity Oct 17 13 clicks

Convequity on X

We think the gross margin gap between Cerebras ($CBRS) and NVIDIA ($NVDA) says little about which company delivers compute more cheaply. Cerebras reported a 14% gross margin in Q2 2026, against roughly 75% for NVIDIA. That is not a clean comparison, because Cerebras's commercial agreements include customer warrants. A customer warrant gives a buyer of Cerebras compute the right to buy Cerebras shares at an agreed price, adding potential equity upside to the compute it purchases. Cerebras records the value of these incentives over time as a reduction in revenue. Its cost of delivering the compute stays the same, so the full amount comes out of gross profit and its reported gross margin falls too. Add the warrants and a few other items back and Cerebras's Q2 margin was 41%, so the reported gap tells us little about what each company spends to deliver equivalent compute. Cerebras could challenge NVIDIA with attractive economics on selected workloads without matching every capability of NVIDIA's platform. In our view NVIDIA's stronger answer is Feynman reaching customers on schedule with the 3D-stacked SRAM we expect. Stacking more fast memory close to the compute would reduce the need to fetch data from slower external memory, helping NVIDIA narrow the architectural advantage behind Cerebras's fast inference. NVIDIA's adoption of Groq technology could ease some of this pressure, but we believe Groq's current architecture remains weaker than Cerebras's for low-latency inference. The longer Feynman takes to arrive at scale, the more time Cerebras has to win customers.

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $64B

LA Capital Oct 16 8 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 52 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 24 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

Brookfield Asset Management: What If The AI Boom Backfires?

Brookfield Asset Management's fee revenue rose 16.2% and distributable earnings 15.8%, but its 18% five-year target relies on AI-led growth…

BAM $72B

Daniel Schönberger Oct 15 3 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 27 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

CMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Everyone wants to defend CoreWeave but who really knows

CoreWeave faces fresh skepticism as another AI trade selloff collides with bullish defenses of the company.

CRWV $34B

The Technology Letter Oct 14 6 clicks

A Conversation With Ari Emanuel About Entertainment and AI

Ari Emanuel discusses AI’s impact on Hollywood, live events, social networks and the future of advertising.

TKO $33B

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 14 7 clicks

Coherent | Management Call

COHR $52B

P Equity Research Oct 14 19 clicks

PRYMY · short

Prysmian Spa

Prysmian (PRYMY) is presented as a short position.

PRYMY $35B

Value Investors Club May 8 1 click

What I Read This Week

Weekly reading list covers Agnico Eagle, Cameco, Dollar Tree, Meta, Braze and Apollo across mining, retail, AI and insurance.

DLTR $23BAPO $69B

Stock Thoughts Jun 1

Portfolio Update May 2026

Portfolio update: sold Nomad Foods, trimmed Copart, added Pool Corp and Floor & Decor, and bought Tractor Supply as the portfolio trails…

TSCO $18B

D Invests Jun 1

The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis

Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…

SMMT $12B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 31 7 clicks

Bubbles, a UK Compounder & Ferrari’s Future

Jeremy Grantham says AI has interrupted a bear market and predicts a 50% market decline, drawing on GMO’s study of 27 bubbles.

RACE $70B

Behind the Balance Sheet May 31

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $18B

Hated Moats May 29

Tractor Supply: A Yield Worth Harvesting

Tractor Supply, the 2,641-store rural lifestyle retailer, is pitched as an undervalued defensive compounder, supported by recurring…

TSCO $18B

D Invests May 29

Natera: Is the Future Worth Paying up for?

Natera's long-term future is weighed against its current valuation.

NTRA $57B

Bearstone May 29 1 click

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $98B

Speedwell Memos May 26 2 clicks

Quick Value #315 - Zoetis (ZTS)

Zoetis trades at about 11x 2026 earnings after falling more than 60% from its peak, as disappointing launches and safety issues pressure…

ZTS $31B

Value Don't Lie May 18

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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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