Friday, October 16, 2026

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman examines AI data-center debt, CoreWeave's tech correction and agentic AI's effect on banks as earnings season begins.

CRWV $34BBAC $352B

Steve Eisman Oct 16 22 clicks

Oct 16 META $1.8T

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Oct 16 META $1.8T

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 17 clicks

From X

@gnoble79 Oct 16 3 clicks

George Noble on X

@richardsmith $IREN could be a zero.

@BarbarianCap Oct 16 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

$PM crazy intraday moves (incl new intraday ATH both days) July 28 Oct 15 $COST $KO $BUD $MO $MDLZ similar on these two days; earnings day-like moves https://t.co/jVyJ8a4Tkp

@BarbarianCap Oct 16 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

E.l.f. Beauty CFO Mandy Fields on consumers, pricing and building a foundation in cosmetics $ELF https://t.co/VYtj1rP3T7

@finphysnerd Oct 16 1 click

Myles on X

Continuing to add Biotech long short exposure aggressively here. Just longing anything smart people/funds are long and shorting anything with high short interest that's a bit squeezy as a basket, plus shorting some $XBI. Nearing 10% gross exposure.

@SowingAlphaSeed Oct 16 2 clicks

Farmer on X

@Biohazard3737 @taobanker was talking about using $WMT calls as a hedge the other day. https://t.co/0pnUteAQ4u

@finphysnerd Oct 16 3 clicks

Myles on X

@ArgonathCapital Actually just looked at $XLP, think it could be good. Need to do more work.

@finphysnerd Oct 16 3 clicks

Myles on X

Had a 2.7% up day today, which is my best day since starting to manage money last year. Back to all time highs courtesy of $SITC, plus everything else lining up nicely today. Feels good after an absolute grind of a month.

@KEDM_COM Oct 16 4 clicks

KEDM.com on X

A company that is not having a good time is the recent spin-off, Honeywell Aerospace $HONA, which is still not recovering from the poor set of results. A reminder that these guys are targeting 6-8% organic growth through 2030, with EBIT and FCF growing faster than revenue. The business combines leading OEM positions with a large aftermarket franchise, including the #1 position in APUs (~65% share) and the #2 position in avionics. Cheaper than its peers, but for a reason? That's why it's interesting to see the first insider buying shares on the open market.

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

GLOO: Gloo's own filings make the short case

Gloo's $3.25 follow-on, going-concern warning and $28.0 million first-half cash burn frame the short case against its acquisition-driven…

GLOO $298M

Guardian Research Oct 16 17 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783MNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

Tuya: A Global Smart-Home Platform Priced Like a Cash Box

Tuya’s $976 million cash pile equals 94% of its $1.04 billion market cap as its smart-home platform returned to 16% revenue growth in Q2…

TUYA $1.1B

Substack von Philipp Oct 16 43 clicks

Fannie Mae Preferreds For Post-Midterm IPO Announcement

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could leave conservatorship through a 2026 restructuring and IPO, monetizing the government’s equity stake while…

FNMA $4.2B

Glen Bradford Oct 16 5 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 53 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B

Atrium Research - Equity Research Oct 15 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B

CV's Substack Oct 15 19 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 13 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 25 clicks

TMCR · short

Metals Royalty Company INC

Metals Royalty Company, a U.S.-focused critical-minerals royalty platform, direct-listed on Nasdaq in April 2026 and holds royalty and…

TMCR $143M

Value Investors Club May 25

Winning Cultures, Brutal Truths

Norges Bank’s Winning Cultures conference drew lessons from Ken Griffin, Michael O’Leary and Jamie Dimon on rapid decisions, cost…

RYAAY $27B

Behind the Balance Sheet May 3

Floor & Decor: 1Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…

FND $4.9B

Speedwell Research May 1

Quick Value #313 - Magnum Ice Cream (MICC)

Magnum Ice Cream (MICC), spun off from Unilever, trades at 13x NTM earnings and 8x EBITDA as its 3 million-freezer fleet supports a 2-3…

MICC $12B

Value Don't Lie May 1

Meta: 1Q26 Business Update

Meta’s Q1 2026 revenue rose 33% as ad impressions gained 19%, while AI-driven ranking and targeting lifted engagement and conversion;…

META $1.8T

Speedwell Memos Apr 30 1 click

Meta 1Q26 Business Update: The Big Personalzied AI Bet

Meta grew first-quarter revenue 33% as AI lifted engagement and ad conversion, while data-center depreciation cut margins and personalized…

META $1.8T

Speedwell Research Apr 29

GPGI Inc.

GPGI, formerly CompoSecure, is David Cote’s $4.2 billion industrial acquisition platform, managed by Resolute Holdings for 2.5% of adjusted…

GPGI $3.7BRHLD $861M

Kairos Research Apr 29

$SN: The Sneaky Compounder With 40% Upside (No Paywall)

SharkNinja, spun off from Hong Kong-listed JS Global Lifestyle and listed at $42.31 in July 2023, is pitched as a 40% upside compounder.

SN $27B

Guardian Research Apr 29

Under The Hood: Ulta Beauty, Inc. ($ULTA)

Ulta Beauty’s 46 million-member loyalty model drove strong historical cash flow, but earnings have stalled since fiscal 2022 as SG&A rose;…

ULTA $26B

Bearhold Research Apr 28

The Maintenance Capex Mirage at Americold ($COLD) and Lineage ($LINE)

Americold and Lineage face a cold-storage supply overhang, weakening rents and labor and power costs that pressure thin NOI margins and…

COLD $3.9BLINE $7.8B

Shallow Dives Apr 28

Friday, October 16, 2026

George Noble on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

Farmer on X

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KEDM.com on X

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