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Friday, October 16, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK
@david_katunaric 1 click

Mikro Kap David on X

Yesterday I dug deeper into an 🇦🇺 special situation that reminds me of when I first found $ICCC back in September 2025. In both cases, a high-quality core business is taking share in an oligopolistic niche with a superior product, yet its underlying economics are obscured by a legacy development program that has consumed decades of spending and exhausted nearly everyone who has ever owned the stock. As was the case with ImmuCell, I don’t think this setup requires regulatory approval to work. FAA approval would create significant upside, while abandonment would remove the cost burden, allowing management to focus entirely on the core business and letting its underlying economics shine through. There is also a less “dramatic” but plausible third path: the legacy program’s drag on profitability continues to diminish while the attractive aerospace business grows around it. Both situations also brought experienced industry executives into senior leadership at a potentially important turning point. And, so far, I believe the new management team is making the right moves. There are several ways this could play out, but I believe the favorable outcomes are more likely, while the unfavorable ones shouldn’t carry much downside at the current valuation. I wrote up this company now so that, as new information emerges, you’ll know what matters, what doesn’t, and how each development changes the risk-reward. That should put you in a position to act while others are still parsing headlines and catching up. Link in the comment below.

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PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SOLS $9.6B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks
TY · long

Tri-continental CORP

Tri-Continental Corp is presented as a long investment-grade fixed-income idea for portfolios with limited liquidity and diversification.

TY $1.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $3.1B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

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