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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 51 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTAM: Stan Druckenmiller and Chris Hohn long concrete. Titan America is a vertically integrated East Coast cement/building-materials platform with leading positions in Florida (~31%), Virginia/North Carolina (~30%) and Metro New York (~24%). Its moat is physical: scarce permitted cement capacity, quarries, marine terminals, rail, ready-mix and downstream distribution. The business generated $1.66B of revenue and $390M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, and 2025 ROCE was 19.5%. The major change in 2026 is Keystone. Titan closed the $310M acquisition in May, adding 990K tons of clinker capacity and >50 years of mineral reserves. Keystone contributed ~$20M of Q2 revenue; Titan is targeting ≥$30M of annual run-rate synergies by 2029. Mid-Atlantic Q2 revenue/EBITDA rose 27%/30%, partly driven by Keystone, while Florida EBITDA fell 19% because of Pennsuco maintenance and import-logistics disruptions. The construction backdrop is softer than the old table suggested: U.S. construction spending was down 3.8% YoY in July 2026, and ACA expects cement consumption to fall 2.5% in 2026 before turning positive in 2027. The bright spots are data centers and infrastructure: July 2026 AIA consensus calls for data-center construction growth of 33% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027, while nonresidential overall is -0.3% / +3.0%. At $13.85 on September 25, TTAM has ~$2.55B of market cap and ~$3.09B of EV against $393.7M of TTM adjusted EBITDA, or ~7.9x EV/EBITDA. A reference peer group is around ~12.4x. Your replacement-cost framework of ~$4.2B ex-logistics therefore equates to ~$1.1B above current EV; after net debt, roughly ~$3.7B of equity value versus ~$2.6B today. The key debate is no longer whether Keystone is cheap on capacity—it is whether Titan can actually turn that capacity into normalized EBITDA through utilization, pricing and network synergies.

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks
SPHR · long

Sphere Entertainment CO

Sphere Entertainment is shifting from construction and startup spending to a high-margin, cash-generative venue-operator model, with…

SPHR $3.7B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 7 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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