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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.
@BrokenMoats 6 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

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My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 26 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks
AMPX · short

Amprius Technologies, Inc.

Amprius Technologies derives 94% of revenue from licensing despite its silicon-anode battery supplier narrative for defense and aerospace…

AMPX $1.2B
Value Investors Club 1 click

JVA- Coffee Holding Co (buy)

Coffee Holding trades near a $9 million market cap and $17 million net current asset value, while its proposed Delta merger values JVA…

JVA $26M
Sylence Capital

A Mexican Blue Chip Bargain

Grupo Herdez, a MXN 15.2 billion Mexican food company, pairs dominant grocery brands with McCormick, Barilla and Hormel joint ventures.

GUZOF $954M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

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