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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$SPCX's Starship reached orbit and delivered cargo. The gigawatts still depend on how often it flies. We have been building the orbital-compute case with three key inputs: kilowatts per ton, tons per flight, and flights per year. 1) Ship 41 reached orbit, about 275 km, and released all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. They are in service. Until this flight Starship had only made short hops and come straight back. 2) The flight was shorter than the plan. One of six upper-stage engines shut down early, and the ship came down at the first health check after deployment, about three hours after launch, instead of staying up for about ten hours. Both stages splashed in the ocean. That was the plan. The ship can take a hard splash and be scrapped. It still delivered a commercial payload. Catching it is how later flights get cheaper. 3) A typical 1 GW site on the ground loses about 370 MW to power conversion, cooling and other overhead that is not the chips. Elon has said terrestrial solar produces about an eighth of the power of the same panel in space: no night, and no atmosphere in the way. In orbit most of that 370 MW overhead goes away as well. Sunlight is continuous, and the heat leaves through radiators. 4) On our Special View assumptions, year 4 is 200 tons at 100 kW per ton, which is 20 MW on one flight. Five hundred flights is 10 GW. Year 5 is still 20 MW a flight. Five thousand flights is 100 GW. The tons and the kilowatts stay the same. The flight count is what changes. Flight 14 showed Starship can reach orbit and deliver cargo. The 10 GW and the 100 GW still depend on how fast SpaceX can fly it again, and at what price.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.

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My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 24 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 14 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 12 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $631B
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

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