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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 84 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

Two event-driven levered equities I’m thinking about this weekend: $XRX and $SVC. $XRX seems simple on paper. Monetize XFS, delever and unlock substantial equity value. But if it’s that obvious, why hasn’t Icahn’s guy done it in eight years? The recent TPG IP monetization suggests they’re willing to get creative, so what’s preventing an XFS transaction? $SVC is potentially more interesting. If the board accepts TKO’s $2bn hotel portfolio offer, you’re creating the remaining net lease portfolio at a very attractive valuation with significant equity torque from deleveraging. My biggest question is whether TKO actually has the financing commitments to close… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

85.5% of the BWX Technologies $BWXT stock insiders have sold in the open market since January 2025 came from CEO Rex Geveden. All 14 open-market transactions since then were sales, totaling 129,322 shares and $20.1M. Geveden accounts for 110,625 of the shares and $17.2M, in two phases: 1) Discretionary sales: 45,625 shares at $107.40 on February 26, 2025, and 25,000 at $179.00 on August 6, 2025, both two days after an earnings release and neither under a 10b5-1 plan (a pre-set trading plan). 2) Plan sales: On August 11, 2025, five days after the second sale, he adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 40,000 shares through August 14, 2026. He sold 10,000 shares/quarter under the plan, at $197.90, $203.26, $204.81, and $172.50, using up all 40,000. He still holds 192,491 shares directly ($28.0M at $145.70). The last two 10-Qs show no new plans adopted in H1 2026, and the Q3 10-Q, due with results on November 2, will show whether he adopted another plan after the first expired. The other eight sales, by seven executives and directors, totaled 18,697 shares and $2.9M. Most of this selling carries little signal. The other insiders’ $2.9M is small, and Geveden’s 40,000 plan shares were scheduled in August 2025. His two discretionary sales matter more. They totaled 70,625 shares ($9.4M) outside any plan, and including the plan sales, he’s sold about a third of his shares since February 2025. But both came right after $BWXT reported earnings, not ahead of them, at $107.40 and $179.00, well below the $238.42 peak. So the selling isn’t a warning sign, but with no insider buying during the drop, insiders aren’t signaling a bottom.
@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

I think Gavin's correct. Open-weight models that compress frontier margins are positive for AI infra -- they don't shrink demand for compute. An example is after Deepseek R1, Tencent, Alibaba and Bytedance *significantly* increased H20 orders...and smaller healthcare & education firms started buying $NVDA H20's to run DeepSeek in-house. So we saw a broadening out of the customer base for the infra providers. In the West, I think $DELL is the best read on whether the buyer base is broadening beyond frontier labs. Hyperscalers mostly buy directly from Taiwanese ODMs, so Dell's AI customers are mostly neoclouds, sovereigns and enterprises. Dell's AI customer count went from >5,000 to >6,500 last quarter (30% growth in one quarter) which management say is mainly down to enterprise acceleration. Feels like that's one of the better public data points on how fast the self-hosting buyer base is growing. Which is a net-positive for AI infra. I don't understand how it can't be?

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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