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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Other than the backlog growing linearly every year and taking that at face value here are some secular trends I found that support growth pertinent to $BUKS: Management repeatedly points to several things in earnings calls: developing additional FAA-approved STCs; getting repeat installations from STCs it has already developed; bringing fabrication in-house rather than outsourcing it; increasing production capacity; selling more kits that customers install themselves; doing larger and more complicated special-mission aircraft; expanding systems-integration work; and growing internationally. During FY2026, BUKS invested approximately $2.7M in developing/producing new products BUKS’s Aerospace segment isn’t primarily an OEM. Its core exposure is modifying King Air, Cessna turboprop, Learjet and increasingly Challenger aircraft for ISR, aerial surveillance, sensors, search-and-rescue and other special missions; installing avionics/electronics; and selling modification kits under FAA STCs. 1. The turbine aircraft fleet BUKS targets is projected to grow ~2% annually for 20 years The FAA’s Aerospace Forecast FY2025–2045 projects the turbine general-aviation fleet to grow 2.1% annually through 2045. In contrast, the piston fleet is expected to shrink slightly. The FAA expects essentially all net growth in the traditional GA fleet to come from turbine aircraft. That’s highly relevant because BUKS specifically says its businesses concentrate on King Air and Cessna turboprops, Learjets and other turbine aircraft. 2. Business-jet deliveries are projected to grow ~3% annually for the next decade Honeywell’s 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts: 8,500 new business jets worth $283 billion over the next 10 years, the highest value in the forecast’s 34-year history. It projects deliveries to grow at approximately 3% annually, with 2026 deliveries expected to increase another 5% YoY. 3. Honeywell found that 91% of business-aircraft operators expect to fly the same amount or more, with 28% expecting increased flying. The FAA separately forecasts total general-aviation flight hours to increase 19% from 2023 through 2045, with turbine, rotorcraft and experimental aircraft driving the increase. Higher utilization generally supports demand for upgrades and keeping existing aircraft economically useful. That’s relevant to BUKS because many of its products effectively extend or expand the capabilities of existing airframes rather than requiring operators to buy a new aircraft.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$BMBL: Warren Buffett in the salad oil scandal days of American Express used scuttlebutt to determine the strength of the most by going to restaurants. Bumble has a similar level of horrible sentiment today. My tiny brain just realized I am in the epicenter of dating apps (being at a 60k student university). I will be asking every girl for the next few weeks their experiences and perspectives on the different dating apps.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$IRWD: Citizens raised from 8 to 10, profitable FDA approved biotech, raised guidance (second time in a year) to 450m-475m revenue vs 320m est. Bought VectivBio for 1b. Market cap 682m Q2 2026 earnings: LINZESS Pricing Power Powers a Guidance Raise Ironwood Pharmaceuticals delivered a robust Q2 2026, breaking past conservative Q1 expectations by posting $113M in total revenue (+33% YoY) and raising its full-year guidance across the board. The story here is a massive rebound in LINZESS net pricing. The elimination of inflationary rebates drove commercial margins to 78% (up from 69% a year ago). The company capitalized on this cash flow by paying off $200M in convertible notes with cash on hand, effectively de-risking the balance sheet ahead of heavy R&D investments for the apraglutide STARS-2 trial. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 — The strategic reset of the LINZESS list price at the start of 2026 is paying massive dividends. Favorable gross-to-net rebate timing and eliminated inflationary rebates are driving net sales and commercial margins higher, resulting in a full-year guidance raise. • 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐞-𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐝 — The $200M cash repayment of 2026 convertible notes removes a major maturity overhang, leaving the company well-positioned to self-fund the critical Phase 3 apraglutide trial while generating strong free cash flow. 📷 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 — Despite the net pricing win, LINZESS prescription demand growth decelerated to 4% YoY in Q2, down from 5% in Q1 and the 11-13% growth rates seen in late 2025. The brand is reaching maturity. • 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 — Almost 100% of Ironwood's revenue comes from its share of LINZESS profits. With no clear post-LOE strategy communicated, long-term terminal value remains a risk while the pipeline remains highly concentrated on apraglutide. 📷Bullish. Management is executing flawlessly on their stated goals: maximizing LINZESS cash flow, strengthening the balance sheet, and advancing apraglutide. The guidance raise confirms Q1's strength was not a fluke. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 📷 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐙𝐄𝐒𝐒 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 [NEW] Accelerating. LINZESS commercial margin jumped to 78% in Q2 2026 from 69% in Q2 2025. This was driven by a combination of a 14% increase in U. S. net sales (to $282.3M) and a YoY decrease in AbbVie/Ironwood commercial costs and discounts (from $76.9M to $63.0M). The January 2026 list price reduction successfully eliminated significant inflationary rebates, directly benefiting the bottom line. 📷 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 [NEW] Stable. The company successfully executed its plan to repay the $200M aggregate principal amount of its 1.50% convertible senior notes at maturity in June using cash on hand. While cash balances dropped from $220.5M in Q1 to $79.1M, eliminating this near-term maturity removes a significant financial overhang. The remaining $385M on the revolving credit facility represents manageable leverage against >$310M in projected FY26 Adjusted EBITDA. 📷 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐙𝐄𝐒𝐒 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 [NEW] Decelerating. A specific data point contradicts the purely positive narrative: while revenue and profits are surging due to pricing, the underlying prescription volume growth is slowing. Q2 Rx demand grew 4% YoY (59.8M capsules). This marks a sequential deceleration from 5% in Q1 2026, and is down significantly from the 12-13% growth rates experienced in the second half of 2025. Management raised demand guidance to 'mid-single digits,' but the multi-year volume trend is clearly cooling. 📷 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐍𝐨𝐧-𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐠 Stable. Ironwood recorded $22.4M in income tax expense in Q2 (vs $14.2M in Q2 25). The majority of this is non-cash as the company utilizes net operating losses (NOLs). While it doesn't impact immediate cash flow, it continually depresses GAAP EPS and highlights the complex tax situation of historical R&D-heavy biotech models. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: $83.0 million Accelerating. Up 66% YoY from $50.1M in Q2 2025. The company’s focus on expense discipline combined with the rebound in LINZESS net pricing continues to generate massive operating leverage. 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰: $58.3 million Reversing positively. A massive swing from Q2 2025, which saw cash from operations at a negative $15.1 million. This robust cash generation enabled the $200M debt repayment without tapping into further credit facilities. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $460 - $485 million Accelerating. Raised from the prior estimate of $450 - $475M. At the midpoint ($472.5M), this represents an acceleration over the $290 - $310M baseline seen in 2025, heavily driven by the LINZESS pricing structure changes. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: >$310 million Accelerating. Raised from the prior floor of >$300 million. Proves that the incremental revenue gains from LINZESS are dropping almost entirely to the bottom line. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 🔴le-rate debt versus building cash for business development? 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐒-𝟐 𝐄𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐞𝐝 With STARS-2 actively recruiting, are you seeing any enrollment headwinds due to competing GLP-2 trials in the SBS-IF space, and when should investors expect completion of enrollment? 🔴

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 7 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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