Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 18 clicks

Oct 14 AMAT $359B

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Rebound Capital 30 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital Oct 14 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy Oct 14 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@gnoble79 Oct 14 8 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 4 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@BlueDuckCap Oct 14 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@ACapitalLP Oct 14 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 8 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 14 clicks

Palantir Is Not C3.Ai, But C3.Ai Wrote Its Watch List - Downgrade Palantir To Hold, Sell C3.Ai

Palantir is cut to Hold after a 35% multiple-driven rally, while C3.ai is rated Sell on stalled revenue, expensive valuation and weak…

PLTR $482B

The Alpha Analyst Oct 14 10 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $156B

Value Capital Research Oct 14 7 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 6 clicks

Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials

ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…

AMAT $359B

The Technology Letter Oct 13 8 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B

P Equity Research Oct 13 38 clicks

NXPI · long

Nxp Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors, the global automotive-chip leader, has delivered 12.5% compounded EPS growth and is presented as a long investment.

NXPI $57B

Value Investors Club May 20 1 click

Bye the Index

Nasdaq’s QQQ amassed $456 billion through aggressive marketing, turning index licensing into a larger earnings source than trading, data…

NDAQ $52B

Net Interest May 8

Under The Hood: Domino's Pizza - $DPZ

Domino’s 99%-franchised model converts global retail sales into royalties and supply-chain revenue, but $4.8 billion of debt and mature…

DPZ $10B

Bearhold Research May 8 2 clicks

Novo Nordisk Q1 2026 Review: The Reset Year Looks Less Ugly Than Feared

Novo Nordisk’s adjusted Q1 sales fell 4% despite 22% obesity-care growth, as lower US prices outweighed volume gains.

NVO $172B

Hated Moats May 6

Coupang 1Q26 Business Recap: Data Leak Shows Member Strength

Coupang’s data scandal cut active customers to 23.9 million, but 80% of departed WOW members had returned by April as vouchers and…

CPNG $27B

Speedwell Research May 6

Portfolio Update April 2026

Portfolio update sells Amazon, adds Floor & Decor, and projects 6.5% annual market returns, with a base case of negative 0.89% from…

FND $4.9B

D Invests May 6

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $6BPBI $2.3B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter May 5

Adobe Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)

Adobe trades at 11x earnings despite $24.5 billion of revenue, 37% operating margins and 12% profit growth; a former data-science head…

ADBE $98B

Speedwell Memos May 4

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $48B

scuttleblurb May 4

Sleep Well Portfolio (Apr 2026) - #24 Pick Published, Updates on GRAB, SE, WTC, VEEV

Sleep Well Portfolio publishes its 24th pick and updates Grab, Sea, WiseTech and Veeva as software stocks stabilize.

GRAB $12BSE $57B

Sleep Well Investments May 4 1 click

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

BDC on X

A Capital on X

Broken Moats on X

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