Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast 46h ago 84 clicks

45h ago COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 17 clicks

Oct 14 AMAT $359B

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Rebound Capital 27 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap 36h ago 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital 38h ago 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy 38h ago 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@BrokenMoats 39h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@BlueDuckCap 39h ago 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@ACapitalLP 40h ago 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

@DeepSailCapital 41h ago 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

$DJT Downside still 100% from here https://t.co/6YIEeHfC3e

@BrokenMoats 41h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 7 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $86BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 12 clicks

Palantir Is Not C3.Ai, But C3.Ai Wrote Its Watch List - Downgrade Palantir To Hold, Sell C3.Ai

Palantir is cut to Hold after a 35% multiple-driven rally, while C3.ai is rated Sell on stalled revenue, expensive valuation and weak…

PLTR $482B

The Alpha Analyst Oct 14 8 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 11 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $156B

Value Capital Research Oct 14 6 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 6 clicks

Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials

ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…

AMAT $359B

The Technology Letter Oct 13 5 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B

P Equity Research Oct 13 37 clicks

THC · long

Tenet Healthcare CORP

Tenet Healthcare generates roughly two-thirds of profits from hospitals and one-third from ambulatory surgery centers.

THC $22B

Value Investors Club Jun 29

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…

FLY $3.1B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 24 15 clicks

Atlassian: A $140 Billion Market Growing At 14% Annually Creates A Massive Opportunity

Atlassian targets a $140 billion market growing 14% annually, with Rovo reaching 5 million monthly active users and assisted actions rising…

TEAM $52B

Muhammad Cheema Sep 24

Thursday Tailwinds #8: Sep 24, 2026

ResMed benefits as Eli Lilly-funded sleep-apnoea diagnoses expand PAP demand, while NOV’s geothermal cutters and Po Valley’s unhedged…

RMD $33BNOV $6.6B

Trade Ideas Flow Sep 24

Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG) Deep Dive

Intuitive Surgical faces new US robotic-surgery challengers from Medtronic’s Hugo RAS and J&J’s Ottava after building a 12,000-system da…

ISRG $149BMDT $121B

Jimmy's Journal Sep 24

Navios Maritime Partners: Significant Upside Still Ahead

Navios Maritime Partners targets $150-plus per unit by late 2027 as dry-bulk cargo demand, fleet scarcity and $200 million of buybacks…

NMM $2.8B

J Mintzmyer Sep 24 1 click

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…

ZIM $3.6B

Calvin Blissett Sep 23 13 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

ADI $201BONDS $3.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 23 4 clicks

SiTime: Wall Street May Be Underestimating Its Growth

SiTime’s MEMS timing portfolio, Renesas acquisition and 1.6T transition are positioned to drive growth and margin expansion as supply…

SITM $16B

Gil Rotstein Sep 23 2 clicks

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…

FOUR $3B

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 22 18 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

Broken Moats on X

BDC on X

A Capital on X

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Broken Moats on X

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